Politics
The groundswell is building for a massive China stimulus, but that wasn't the case today
But there may be another reason for China's reluctance to stimulate demand. Xu Gao, chief economist at the Bank of China, says much of Beijing's political elite has fallen under the spell of Friedrich Hayek and the Austrian business cycle.
Hayek is neglected in the West; few people still read Prices and Production or Fatal Esteem: The Mistakes of Socialism, but his market fundamentalism is perversely fashionable in communist China.
Any attempt to alleviate China's post-bubble suffering is decried as drinking poison to quench one's thirst. Excess credit must be purged through liquidation, without interference in the self-correcting process. Hard-liners say that solving a debt crisis by pushing the budget deficit to 14 or 15 percent of GDP is pure illusion.
This economic ideology is perfectly in line with Xi Jinping's views on social discipline and moral fiber. Welfare is a dirty word in Xi's thinking. It encourages the lazy who get something for nothing, as he puts it.
But the Chinese leader may conclude that corporal punishment has gone too far and that the Communist Party's survival would be better assured by letting the Chinese people consume more of their own labor and by withdrawing from trade wars with Europe, America and India.
Xi Jinping has abandoned the Maoist madness of dynamic zero Covid suddenly and without explanation. It is not impossible that he will seriously listen to those who are now calling for a radical change of course and Roosevelt’s policies. If he does, it will change the global economic landscape overnight and set asset markets on fire.
Investors will need to watch China very closely over the next six months.
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Sources 2/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/24/groundswell-building-for-massive-chinese-stimulus/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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