For India, it's not such a great day in the neighborhood

Sri Lankan Anura Kumara Dissanayake worries New Delhi as his political party made a name for itself in the 1980s with an anti-Indian terrorist campaign.

By Mihir Sharma / Bloomberg Opinion

Sri Lanka has a new president in foreign nationalist Anura Kumara Dissanayake. His victory is a testament to the vitality of the nation's democracy: two years after protesters forced the resignation of the island's president and prime minister, protest leader Dissanayake gained the upper hand over two well-connected centrists.

However, for the Indian regional giant, these results crown a worrying trend. Dissanayake worries New Delhi because his party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, made a name for itself in the 1980s with an anti-Indian terrorist campaign. Although the new president has tried to set things right, including during a visit earlier this year, India will view it as a bad trade for his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who distrusted China and supported investment Indians.

Similar political transitions have transformed South Asia. Last month, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was overthrown and fled to India for refuge. Earlier this summer, KP Sharma Oli, who has always been close to Beijing, returned to the post of Prime Minister of Nepal.

An Indian-led campaign in the Maldives brought its current president, Mohamed Muizzu, to power last year. Moreover, it is likely that Indian officials would prefer that Imran Khan, who remains very popular with the Pakistani electorate, remain in the prison where most believe his country's military has placed him.

New Delhi started the year securely in its relations with Kathmandu, Dhaka and Colombo; The only neighbor it can now count on is the small monarchy of Bhutan, a decades-old ally that manages its security and foreign policy in close cooperation with India.

Although internal developments clearly motivated most of these political transitions, Indian politics has done the country no favors. While Indians like to point out that their country is the world's largest democracy, their neighbors complain that New Delhi does not always promote and support the region's democratic values.

Indeed, pro-government commentators openly boast of India's foreign policy success in shaping democratic verdicts in its neighborhood and turning a blind eye to democratic deficits.

Sometimes, however, realpolitik is simply myopia. Hasina's departure to Bangladesh followed elections a few months earlier that most, including the United States, did not consider free and fair. India overlooked this and seemed surprised when it ultimately proved extremely unpopular.

Likewise, New Delhi's courtship of Myanmar's military junta, which memorably led then-US President Barack Obama to criticize India's parliament in 2010 for turning away from defending democracy , could soon turn sour. Indian officials were furious at the time, insisting that the strong hand of the Myanmar military was needed to manage the volatile border. Today, anti-government rebels control large parts of that same border, making ties to the junta more of a liability than an asset.

It didn't have to be this way. When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was first elected in 2014, he invited leaders of neighboring countries to his swearing-in. He had the opportunity to restore relations with each of them and create new partnerships based on economic integration and mutual respect for democracy.

In the years that followed, diplomats ceded control of relations with these countries and with China, with whom India shares the longest of its borders, to security authorities. This turned out to be a crucial mistake. If you view your neighbors primarily through a security lens, you risk choosing allies and condoning behaviors that together alienate large swathes of the electorate. When the political tide turns, these bets can turn quickly.

You would think that India's extraordinary soft power would offset some of these missteps. However, the influence of its films and media, which are closely followed across South Asia, may prove unnecessary. After the elections in the Maldives, popular Bollywood stars announced that they would stop vacationing there. Additionally, hypernationalist media relentlessly focus on stories that citizens of these smaller neighbors feel portray their countries unfairly.

India would do well to study China's relations with its neighbors. This would give policymakers an idea of ​​what not to do and what might work. Economic integration is essential: as the largest market in the region, India must be a source of prosperity for its people. On the other hand, expecting small nations to bow down is a mistake. India's rise may be as inevitable as China's, but neither potential superpower can afford to ignore the aspirations of its neighbors.

Mihir Sharma is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, he is the author of Restart: The Last Chance for the Indian Economy. This column does not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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