Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric falters as Turkey loses regional influence

At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an “international alliance of humanity” to stop Israel, as he did with Hitler 70 years ago. However, these fiery speeches find fewer and fewer audiences.

“It’s more about conveying a message to their own base,” said Sezin Oney of Turkish news portal Politikyol. “No one really considers Turkey or Erdogan the vanguard of Palestinian rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed a long time ago.”

Erdogan attempted to bolster his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi prime ministers on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. But Ankara finds itself increasingly marginalized as a regional diplomatic actor.

“Ankara’s pro-Hamas approach has only marginalized Turkey on the international stage,” said Selin Nasi, an international relations expert at the London School of Economics. “So we see Egypt and Qatar being rewarded for their role as mediators. And Turkey is being excluded from international diplomatic efforts.”

Since Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7 and the subsequent Israeli campaign in Gaza, Ankara has attempted to position itself among international mediation efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas.

Turkish youth find common cause in protests against trade with Israel

Mediation efforts

“The United States has asked Turkey to speak with Hamas members,” said Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at the Vienna Institute for Human Studies.

However, Ozel claims that the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran deprived Erdogan of his diplomatic asset.

“The assassination of Haniyeh, with whom Turkey had very close relations, was a big blow for Turkey. From what I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport,” Ozel said .

“And I really don't think that Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas.”

With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric and Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv says Turkey has nothing to offer.

Turkey demonstrates naval strength as neighbors fear escalation of arms race

“There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. These are the two actors who have influence over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support for Hamas, has very little influence over the Hamas' decisions,” Lindenstrauss said.

“So Turkey is not effective, it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political influence over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice …Turkey is not very efficient.

“So I don’t think it’s a mistake that Turkey is not part of it. [mediation] process.”

Ankara was quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have had little success, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon.

However, some experts say Ankara's diplomatic sidelining conveys a broader message, that of Arab countries opposing Turkey's involvement in the region.

“No Arab country wants to involve Turkey in this process,” said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci of the Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

“Turkey could be seen by their views as Israel's enemy, but that is artificial. The Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East since 1948 is an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict.”

Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral agreements

Regional ambitions

For more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to expand Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often calling the years of Ottoman rule happy days of peace and tranquility.

But the latest war in the Middle East ended those dreams, analyst Ozel said.

“The Turkish government thought it could dominate the Middle East. It played the game of seeking hegemony and it lost it,” Ozel explained.

“When they lost it, Turkey found itself very far behind [the position] this was the case before 2011, when their grandiose plan to create a region that would be dominated by Turkey began. »

As the war between Israel and Hamas threatens to intensify in the region, Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel is likely to continue. But analysts warn that aside from the leader's conservative base at home, few others in the region will be receptive.