Hezbollah leader's death plunges Middle East into uncertainty – Sri Lanka Guardian

Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah's main headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Friday evening, leading to the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and several other Hezbollah commanders.

The event, which made international headlines, was followed by the largest Israeli military operation in Lebanon since 2006, with bombings in Dahieh and parts of southern and eastern Lebanon, making even more of victims.

Analysts say Nasrallah's death could create a power vacuum within Hezbollah, destabilize Lebanon and add uncertainty to the broader regional conflict, while changing strategic dynamics in the Middle East.

BROAD CONDEMNATION

According to the Israeli military, Friday's airstrikes killed Nasrallah, as well as other Hezbollah commanders, which was later confirmed by Hezbollah.

Lebanese television channel MTV reported that the raids killed at least six people, injured 91 others, razed several residential buildings and caused enormous damage to the neighborhood's infrastructure.

Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad said on Saturday that Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon over the past 24 hours had left 11 people dead and 108 injured.

Shortly after Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah's death, Hamas condemned the Israeli airstrikes on Dahieh as “a cowardly terrorist act, a massacre and a heinous crime” that once again proves the “bloody and the brutality of Israel.

They held Israel entirely responsible for destabilizing the region and condemned U.S. support for Israel.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel's “brutal” and “inhumane” attacks and called on the Islamic world to take “a more decisive stance” against these attacks.

Iran, Iraq, Tunisia, Syria, Jordan and Egypt also condemned Israel's “terrorist” attacks on Dahieh and the “brutal aggression” against Lebanon. Some Middle Eastern countries have announced days of mourning.

Also on Saturday, Yemen's Houthi group described Nasrallah's death as a “huge loss” and “a curse that haunts Israel until it is uprooted.”

At the international level, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep concern over the escalation of the situation in Beirut and urged relevant parties to “recommit to fully implementing” the resolution 1701 and to “immediately return to the cessation of hostilities”. France also condemned these strikes and called for an immediate end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTS

Hours after Nasrallah's assassination, Israel launched new attacks on Dahieh early Saturday, targeting Hezbollah weapons stored under civilian buildings.

Senior Hezbollah officials, including Mohammad Ali Ismail, commander of Hezbollah's missile unit, and his deputy, Hussein Ahmad Ismail, were reportedly killed in the strikes.

Israeli warplanes also carried out a series of airstrikes on southern and eastern Lebanon, according to Lebanese military sources.

Saturday marked the sixth consecutive day of Israel's most extensive military action in Lebanon since 2006, which the Lebanese Health Ministry said cost the lives of at least 700 people. U.N. humanitarians say Israeli airstrikes have forced more than 90,000 people to flee their homes in Lebanon.

This is the latest escalation of ongoing clashes that began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah began launching rockets at Israel in solidarity with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, provoking artillery fire and retaliatory airstrikes by Israel in southeastern Lebanon.

According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, 1,640 people in Lebanon, including 104 children and 194 women, have been killed and 8,408 others injured in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since October last year.

Following Nasrallah's death, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Saturday a ban on gatherings of more than 1,000 people in central Israel.

The Israeli military also said it had successfully intercepted a surface-to-surface missile launched from Yemen towards Israel.

Meanwhile, Iran's national carrier Iran Air has canceled all flights to Beirut until further notice.

INTO THE UNKNOWN

Many experts believe that Nasrallah's death has brought the Middle East into a new phase of uncertainty.

Eyal Zisser, vice-rector of Tel Aviv University, told Xinhua that Nasrallah's death had not only reshaped the power structure in Lebanon, but also had an impact on strategic calculations in the region.

“Immediately afterwards, Hezbollah faced a severe setback. Losing your entire senior echelon in rapid succession is not only a tactical loss but a profound organizational shock from which it could take considerable time to recover,” Zisser said.

“Iran's reliance on proxies is also compromised, given that its network has been significantly affected by these recent Israeli actions,” he said, adding that without Hezbollah's support, “the Hamas may find itself under increased pressure to adapt more flexible approaches in its activities. commitments with Israel.

Harel Chorev, an expert on Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University, told Xinhua that the assassination of Nasrallah and other figures further complicated “an already tumultuous situation” and changed “the balance of power in the Middle East.” East”.

“This represents a symbolic defeat and a strategic vacuum that Hezbollah will struggle to fill,” Chorev said, adding that “the apparent ease with which Israel managed to neutralize key figures within the militant groups sends a stark warning ” to other activist leaders and organizations in the region.

“The underlying tone of Israeli officials suggests a desire to aggressively exploit these vulnerabilities to secure regional dominance,” Chorev said.

“The assassination is likely to embolden (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu, who now sees the opportunity to impose a new paradigm. Israel is unlikely to stop bombing Lebanon. It is also unlikely that Hezbollah will be completely destroyed,” Dania Koleilat Khatib, an expert on US-Arab relations, wrote on the Arab News website.

“Unless there is someone to direct events, an unbridled Netanyahu will plunge the region into even more chaos,” she wrote.

With the strikes, Israel sent a clear message that it would no longer accept tit-for-tat attacks on its northern border, but that might not necessarily achieve the desired impact, said Mireille Rebeiz, a security expert. Lebanon at Dickinson College, based in the United States. told The Conversation on Saturday.

“The new wave of violence can only strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve. Furthermore, it could lead to greater involvement of other Hezbollah-aligned actors in the region,” she said.

Youssef Diab, a political analyst at the Lebanese University, considers Nasrallah's death a “turning point” in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, as it will lead to a vacuum in Hezbollah's leadership.

The assassination will also have a significant influence on the conflict between Israel and Iran, one of Hezbollah's main supporters, he told Xinhua.

“All eyes are on Iran and what it will say after this big event,” he said.

Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University's campus in Qatar, told Reuters on Saturday that Iran would not react forcefully to recent events, under its doctrine of “strategic patience.”

“And I think this doctrine will continue,” Kamrava said. “They are reluctant to engage in direct dialogue with Israel. »