What Tory leadership candidates should learn from the mistakes of Boris Johnson and Silvio Berlusconi

The Conservative Party chooses a new leader, with four candidates still in the running: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. Each speaks to a party in dire need of new leadership and the path forward is far from clear.

OUR recent research suggests the candidates could learn a lot from two phenomenally successful party leaders in the coming weeks, but probably more in terms of what not to do.

We looked at Silvio Berlusconi, who served as Italian prime minister three times between 1994 and 2011, and Boris Johnson, more briefly as prime minister of the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2022. Both were unusual politicians, media executives who dominated with a combination of three Ps: personalization, performance and populism.

As political celebrities, they used and manipulated the media to create endless controversy (much easier for Berlusconi because he owned so much of it). As it turned out, their approach paid off at the polls. Berlusconi won three elections and reshaped Italian politics, while Johnson won the largest conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher.

Yet for all their apparent power and opportunities, Berlusconi and Johnson have brought about little lasting change. Both promised national rejuvenation, whether a new Italian miracle or a leveling up. They left office leaving behind a series of broken promises.

The four remaining Conservative candidates each displayed signs of the three Ps. With a number of party members to woo, each sought to appeal to the populist right on immigration and relations with Europe. Badenoch and Jenrick created personalized calls based somewhat bizarrely on references made for the working class. With little attention paid to the competition, candidates attempted to get involved in the current affairs agenda hoping to make an impact.

This path could worsen the situation of the conservatives. Johnson and Berlusconi used the media playing at being spontaneous and prone to gaffes, making themselves appear authentic and protesting. They hung ziplines, insulted minority groups, and reveled in the controversy and shock they caused.

Their media obsession has caused their governments to devolve into an endless series of headline-grabbing stunts. Johnson drove a tractor through a polystyrene wall to show he would deliver Brexit. Berlusconi personally signed a contract with the Italian people on live television, proposing a five-point manifesto, and promised he would resign if he got less than four (reader, he didn't achieve them and he didn't did not resign).

The problem was that media spectacle became a substitute for concrete action. Announcements have replaced policies and words have replaced action. This situation was made worse by crises, Berlusconi's Great Crash in 2008 and COVID for Johnson in 2020. Both events called for serious, detail-oriented and determined leaders, the opposite of what Berlusconi and Johnson had to offer.

The Conservative campaign so far has been a rather unedifying fight for the rest of the party, which is equally strong in terms of positioning and headlines. The familiar right-wing touchstones of the culture wars, immigration and Brexit show that candidates are still fighting in recent elections and not addressing new politics. They focused on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) rather than the cost of living.

Badenoch recently said Real politics and real leadership is about leading the way and getting others to follow you, but we did that by strongly expressing our support for Elon Musk, which puts her at odds with both the public and with his own party. It is difficult to imagine that his latest remarks on maternity leave is too generous could also win him public support.

Are there clean skins in the building?

Personality politics often proves to be a double-edged sword. When a politician takes center stage, he attracts all the attention. But this inevitably means paying attention to every misdeed as well as to every triumph.

Berlusconi came to power in 1994 with a series of controversies behind him. In fact, he was said to be aiming for political office, like Trump in 2024, primarily to avoid prison.

The Berlusconis scandals quickly gained momentum, revealing a toxic mix of personal, political and financial irregularities that has long had its own consequences. Wikipedia page involving (deep breath) trials and allegations of abuse of power, bribery and corruption of police officers, judges and politicians, collusion, defamation, embezzlement, extortion, false accounting, mafia, money laundering, perjury, tax evasion.

Johnson has also sparked a series of controversies in Downing Street, particularly regarding his personal life and how he financed his lifestyle, as well as Partygate.

Once in power, questions, inquiries, and investigations into integrity proliferated around their mandates and gradually came to dominate. Their popularity and poll numbers plunged with each grim revelation, forcing their loyal supporters to distance themselves from the chaos.

It seems that the conservative candidates have not heeded this lesson. Everyone sought to personalize their leadership credentials. This only brought attention to scandals, on Jenricks' part dubious accommodation offers to offensive comments Intelligently made about sexual assault. It's not clear that Cleverly's admission that he talks too much, made as an apology for what he said, is actually a useful trait for a future party leader.

All four candidates have seemingly avoided any reflection on the reasons for the Conservatives' catastrophic defeat in the July election. There are signs that each of them realizes the need to produce a credible and united opposition party by moving towards the center.

Berlusconi and Johnson started from much stronger positions than these four, but even they quickly found that their coalitions of voters outside Parliament and MPs within Parliament were too fragile to hold. Increasingly worried partners and supporters lost confidence in both leaders due to their corruption and inaction, while the weak electoral alliances supporting them came under pressure.

Whoever inherits the conservative leadership will have to count on many allies despite the many fractures that divide the defeated party. Johnson, and then Liz Truss, enjoyed rather superficial support and quickly discovered that disaffected parties could be disloyal and quick to revolt.