Harris versus Trump: who leads in presidential polls

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

In less than 36 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will face Donald Trump as Americans vote in the 2024 election.

The economy remains the most important issue in this election, according to polls, while Republicans and Democrats are divided on abortion and immigration.

Candidates are gearing up for an intense final stretch of campaigning, with the needle ready to tip one way or the other. So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.8 point lead over Trump according to the latest average of national polls, compiled by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks.

A new poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, surveying 2,500 American adults through September 26, finds Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent.

The most important issue influencing how people will vote in this election remains the economy, regardless of their political affiliation.

The same poll shows that abortion is considered the second most important issue, for 37 percent of voters, followed by immigration with 34 percent.

For Trump voters, however, these priorities are reversed.

More than half (57%) of Trump voters view immigration as one of the most important issues, amid tensions over border security and recent debunked claims by Trump and Republicans about migrants Haitians.

Interestingly, health care and abortion came in as the second most important issues to Trump voters, at 23% each.

Although Trump has advocated for an overhaul of Obamacare, with failed attempts during his presidency, he was unable to present an alternative health policy during the recent presidential debate.

Meanwhile, abortion is top of mind for Harris voters (55%); with Harris herself criticizing abortion bans, following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40%), followed by housing (23%).

Battlefield States

Recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls in swing states give Harris a +3 point lead on average, ranging from a tie with Trump to a +7 point lead.

The poll of more than 6,000 registered voters in swing states was conducted Sept. 19-25, with margins of error ranging from 1 to 4 percent in each state.

In Pennsylvania, which hosted the first Harris-Trump presidential debate, Harris saw her lead increase from +4 points to +5 points since August.

The state previously leaned toward Trump when President Joe Biden was on the Democratic ticket.

In Nevada, Harris has the largest lead of 7 points over Trump, with 52 percent of the vote to 45 percent.

In Georgia, the two candidates are tied at 49 percent each, while Harris' five-point lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to three points ahead of Trump.

Harris also has a 3-point lead in Michigan and Arizona, and a 2-point lead in North Carolina.

Although the economy remains the top issue for swing-state voters, the perceived skills gap is narrowing: 45% of swing-state voters think Harris can handle the economy better, slightly behind Trump at 49%.

It's worth noting that separate New York Times polls earlier this month showed a lead for Trump in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. This variation indicates that swing states are still open to change before November.

Independents

A separate national Morning Consult poll of 11,000 likely voters nationwide September 20-22 shows Harris with an overall lead of 5 points.

The tracking poll puts Harris ahead among elusive independent voters by +4 points overall, at 46 percent, compared to Trump's 42 percent.

However, this margin is unchanged from the same poll in mid-August, where Harris received 42% of the independent vote and Trump 38% (a 4-point lead).

What has changed is that the number of independent voters undecided or voting for a third candidate has increased from one in five (20%) to one in ten (12%).

It is important to note that these undecided voters are independents who are likely to vote. This means that once they make their choice, it will likely tip the scales in favor of one candidate or the other.

Interestingly, 6% of independents still plan to vote for a third-party candidate, even now that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has endorsed Trump.

With Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver still in play, it remains to be seen how many independent votes they will attract on Election Day.

Who will vote?

A YouGov/Economist poll has Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent, and Trump at 44 percent. The poll shows a wide margin of 25 points for Harris among young voters aged 29 and younger.

However, according to the same poll, younger generations are also the least committed to voting, with 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed saying they may vote, while 3 percent will not vote or are still unsure.

This represents 16 percent of those who are hesitant or not voting, higher than any other age group and above the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed said they would definitely vote in November.

This compares to 77 percent of those aged 30 to 44, 85 percent of those aged 45 to 64 and 94 percent of those aged 65 and over.

Even though the figures may seem bleak and reflect a certain degree of hesitation among young voters, the overall picture is significantly more engaged than in 2020.

The same YouGov/Economist poll at this point in the 2020 presidential election showed that almost a third of young people (27%) were not determined to vote in November, 10% might vote and 17% would not vote. definitely/probably didn’t vote.

Arizona: the key issues

In Arizona, a historically Republican state that has 11 Electoral College votes and flipped for Biden in 2020, polls have shown inconsistent leads for Harris and Trump.

The Trump campaign made frequent stops in the state over the summer.

In a state bordering Mexico, about one in five (19%) voters in Arizona say immigration is the most important issue affecting their vote, according to the same poll.

This is the second issue after the economy, which is the number one issue affecting voters statewide and nationwide.

A majority (51%) of Arizona voters believe Trump is better equipped to handle key issues, which has reversed since August, when Harris had slightly more confidence.

This indicates that, despite the general enthusiasm for Harris' debate performance, Arizona voters may favor Trump and his approach to key issues. Since this is a generally Republican state, this is not surprising.

Demographics

A separate New York Times and Siena College poll last week put Trump and Harris in a national deadlock, each with 47% of the vote among likely voters.

This is a slight change compared to the same poll from early September, which gave Trump +2 points ahead of Harris, a surprise result.

The new poll, conducted after the debate and among 2,437 likely voters, found that 67% of respondents said Harris performed well in the debate, compared to 40% who thought the same of Trump.

Harris maintains a strong lead among women (12 points), while Trump enjoys a 14-point lead among men.

In particular, Harris improved her vote share among those under 34 after the debate, with an increase of 7 percent to 58 percent of the vote and a 21-point lead over Trump.

Meanwhile, his lead in the 30-44 age group has narrowed, with Trump just 4 points behind; although Trump's margin in the 45-64 age group also shrank to just 2 points.

Make sense of the US elections with experts from The Independents in our exclusive virtual event Harris v Trump: Who will make history? Reserve your place here.

Among college-educated white voters, the early September poll showed a 12-point preference for Harris. After the debate, this group saw the most gains, with Harris leading by 25 points with 61 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, a New York Times pre-debate poll showed that nearly a third of voters (28%) said they needed to know more about Harris, compared to 9% who would say the same thing about Trump.

But the debate was helpful for Harris in that regard, with half of voters (50%) saying they learned a lot about her during the debate, and only a third saying the same about Trump, according to a New York poll. York Times.

Favorability

The vice president has experienced overall negative ratings since July 2021, which is not uncommon for those who hold public office.

But on September 18, for the first time in more than three years, Harris' positive and negative favorable ratings were equal, according to the average of all favorable polls collected by FiveThirtyEight.

The debate may have been an opportunity for Harris to change her public perception and ultimately foster a more favorable opinion of herself and her campaign.

The same cannot be said for Trump, whose net favorable rating is a negative -9.9, and has been since the last election. JD Vance also entered the race with a negative rating, which has only increased over time, now at -10.7 percent on average.

Democratic running mate Tim Walz is the only candidate to enter the race with a positive rating and maintain it, with an average rating of +3.9, according to FiveThirtyEight.

However, Biden has also suffered negative ratings since September 2021; and has the lowest favorability on average, at -14.6 percent.

A CNN snap poll following the first Trump-Harris debate shows Harris managed to turn the tide with some voters.

Following the debate, more voters now think Harris understands the issues of people like them better (44%) than Trump (40%). Before the debate, it was the opposite.

Make sense of the US election with experts from The Independents in our exclusive virtual event Harris vs. Trump: Who will make history? Reserve your place here.

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