Will Indian munitions destined for Ukraine strain Modi's ties with Russia's Putin? | Russia-Ukraine War

New Delhi, India Visiting Moscow in early July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi described Russia as New Delhi's trusted ally and friend, referring to the decades-old strategic collaboration between the two nations.

Yet less than three months later, that relationship is being tested, especially after reports that kyiv is accessing Indian munitions and using them in the Russo-Ukrainian war. An investigation by the Reuters news agency suggests that Indian shells, purchased by Italy and the Czech Republic, may have been transported to Ukraine. The report follows a series of battlefront images that have emerged in recent months showing Indian munitions used by Ukrainian forces to repel Russia.

Meanwhile, Modi held a series of meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, starting in June in Tokyo, then during the first-ever visit by an Indian prime minister to kyiv in August, and finally, last week, in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal called reports that Ukraine used Indian munitions speculative and malicious. He denied that India violated any rules, but did not specifically deny the presence of Indian shells in Ukraine's armory.

But Russian officials are not convinced by the Indian response and are asking a central question: Has New Delhi put pressure on buyers of its shells to ensure they do not enter the war in Ukraine?

There is ample evidence of the use of Indian artillery shells by Ukrainian forces. There are even photographs that suggest this, a Russian official told Al Jazeera, speaking on condition of anonymity. He highlighted the end-user agreements that accompany all military exports to allow sellers to track the end users of their sold weaponry. Show us proof that India followed Italy or Czechia on how the shells got to Ukraine, the official said, using another name for the Czech Republic.

If Indian munitions arrived in Ukraine, it would not be the only example of the use of Indian weapons in current wars. In June, Al Jazeera revealed how rockets and explosives made by Indian companies were being shipped to Israel amid the devastating war in Gaza, in which more than 41,000 people have been killed.

And if the shells reach Ukraine via third countries without India necessarily intending that to happen, that would also not be unprecedented, said Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu, a professor at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University.

During the apartheid regime, British-made and Indian-owned Centurion tanks, which had been sent for repairs and upgrades to a British company, landed in South Africa, Sidhu told Al Jazeera.

But there are also obvious reasons, analysts say, why India might have thought it could handle the strain placed on its ties with Russia by Ukraine's use of Indian shells.

Equal Opportunity Provider

Traditionally a top arms importer, India exported $3 billion worth of arms between 2018 and 2023 as it attempted to grow its domestic defense manufacturing industry under Modi.

The war in Ukraine has given a major boost to the Indian defense industry. Exports of just three companies Munitions India, Yantra and Kalyani Strategic Systems to Italy and the Czech Republic increased from $2.8 million to $135.24 million between 2022 and 2024.

As India begins to export more weapons globally, it will have to face the unpleasant reality that arms importers do not always do what the exporter would like with the weapons and may even occasionally do things that appear to contravene the restrictions the exporter initially imposed, Christopher Clary said. assistant professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York.

Meanwhile, some reports suggest that Indian electronic products exported to Russia are being used for military purposes.

If this is indeed the case, then India is clearly an equal opportunity provider and supplies both sides: like Milo Minderbinder, the fictional character from Catch-22, who profits by supplying both sides of the conflict, Sidhu said .

Impact on relations with Russia

Some experts believe that Ukraine's use of Indian munitions will not significantly complicate the long and strong relationship between New Delhi and Moscow, rooted in their close cooperation during the Cold War. Two-thirds of India's arms purchases over the past two decades came from Russia, at a time when New Delhi was trying to wean itself off its military dependence on Moscow.

Estimates suggest that Indian shells represent barely 1% of Ukraine's ammunition requirements in the war against Russia.

Given that the amount of munitions apparently earmarked for the war in Ukraine is modest, I imagine the turbulence this causes in India's foreign relations will also be modest and manageable, Clary told Al Jazeera.

But the Russian official who spoke to Al Jazeera suggested that Moscow is interpreting things a little differently. The official pointed out that shortly after returning from kyiv in August, Modi called US President Joe Biden to update him on his talks with Zelenskyy. But he did not call Putin, who instead made the decision to call Modi.

Modi then sent Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval to Moscow to brief Putin on the Indian prime minister's meeting with Zelensky. The Kremlin leaked footage of Doval trying to persuade a seemingly unconvinced Putin about the merits of Modi's visit to kyiv, indicating the unease in India-Russia relations.

Meanwhile, at home, leaders of the opposition Congress party accuse Modi of sabotaging historic good relations with Moscow under American pressure. India's prime minister was forced to travel to kyiv by bulletproof train under pressure from the United States, which wants New Delhi to sever ties with its old friend Russia, Congress leader Rashid Alvi told Al Jazeera . If Indian weapons land in Ukraine, it is also because of the machinations of the United States.

For Sidhu, the NYU professor, even more important than the small volume of Indian shells that reportedly reached Ukraine is the reason the Czech Republic and Italy might funnel these munitions to Zelensky's forces in the first place.

This shows that their production lines are strained and they are desperate to supply Ukraine by any means possible, he said. This is a repeat of what happened in 2011-2012, when NATO ran out of bombs and weapons to use in Libya; Clearly, the war in Ukraine has put a strain on the arms supplies of its Western allies.

In February, German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that Germany was in talks with India to buy munitions from Ukraine. The German embassy in New Delhi declined to comment.

Meanwhile, India attempted to hold serial meetings with Zelensky and Putin. He will visit Russia for the second time in three months in October for the BRICS summit as part of New Delhi's efforts to broker peace between Moscow and kyiv.

Clary said he does not expect a small delivery of Indian shells to Ukraine via third countries to complicate peace efforts. But he also does not see Modi succeeding in mediating peace.

The problem is that both countries think they can achieve their war goals on the battlefield. I'm not sure Modi's good offices can solve this problem, Clary said.

Even with India's recent overtures towards Ukraine, Shanthie Mariet DSouza, founder and president of the Goa-based think tank Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, said New Delhi's traditionally warm ties with Moscow were hurting its credibility as a mediator. India's close historical ties with Russia raise questions about India's neutrality, she told Al Jazeera.

She also acknowledged that despite Modi's best efforts, neither Russia nor Ukraine seemed interested in peace yet. The war is currently at a complex stage, with both sides determined to resolve it by military means, she said. At the moment, it seems unlikely that there will be room for a peacemaker.

What is possible are arms sales, including Made in India shells fired at the front.