Sorry Donald Trump, here's why the election may already be over | Notice

Is the presidential election already over? Well…not exactly. Not yet. But there's now a real argument that last week, former President Donald Trump got mathematically cooked. We just can't see it yet.

The case: Trump must win North Carolina to have a significant chance at the presidency. Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson's pro-slavery, black, Nazi and pornographic scandal could depress Republican turnout and make the Tarheel State unwinnable for Trump. Quod erat manifestandum.

Of course, it's not that simple. So let's take the pieces one by one.

Former president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves after speaking at a campaign rally at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina on July 24. Former president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves after speaking at a campaign rally at Bojangles Coliseum. in Charlotte, North Carolina, July 24. LOGAN CYRUS/AFP via Getty Images

First, is North Carolina essential for Trump? Yes. Or almost. According to election forecaster Nate Silver, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, she has a 95% chance of winning the presidency. Be careful, it is possible to construct maps of electoral colleges where Trump still wins a slim victory without North Carolina. It's just not very likely.

That’s why the Trump campaign’s recognized primary strategy centers on the Tarheel State. Republicans recognize, not so privately, that if they lose there, the path becomes extremely narrow. So North Carolina is almost, but not quite, a GOP staple.

Second, can a candidate for governor significantly harm their candidate for state president? Yes. Political scientists Amuitz Garmendia Madariaga and H. Ege Ozen of Binghamton University studied every relevant case since 1960. There aren't many, but the researchers found “robust and significant governor tail effects on [the] presidential voting at the state level. » Even state legislative elections can have these kinds of “reverse spillovers” down to the presidential level: A study of 2020 legislative elections in swing states, including North Carolina, by the Democratic advocacy group “Run for Something” showed an effect of up to 1.5 percent for races four rungs lower than the ballot.

Certainly, Trump is a political unicorn. He has proven impervious to his own scandals, the kind that would have crushed almost any other figure in American political history (the man is, after all, a convicted felon). And his MAGA people will always be MAGA.

But the voters Trump is counting on to win aren't all MAGA. Far from it. Just six months ago, a quarter of Republican participants in North Carolina's Republican primaries voted for someone other than Trump — 250,000 of them for Nikki Haley — meaning that a large portion of its voting objective is likely to collapse. And remember, whether Trump is sunk doesn't depend on these voters converting to Harris. It depends on the more likely effect that they would be sufficiently discouraged by the Robinson mess to decide not to participate in it, which would result in a substantial decrease in Republican turnout.

Bottom line: Downvote extinction can destroy the rest of the ticket under the right circumstances, and prominent Republicans believe those are the right circumstances. As Whit Ayres, a top Republican pollster, told Vox: “We have few examples of backlash where a negative candidate hurts the top of the ticket. But if anyone could do it, it's this character. [Robinson]”.

Third, is the race in North Carolina close enough that the Robinson effect could put it out of Trump's reach? Yes. Trump won the state by just 1.35 points in 2020 and polling averages show he's statistically tied right now, with a slight tilt toward Harris even before last week.

Fourth, is the situation likely to get worse from now on for Trump? Yes. As former Republican vice presidential candidate Jack Kemp observed, weakness is provocative. Robinson is surely weak: his campaign team has fled and the Republican Governors Association has cut off further funding. And the Harris campaign is definitely provoked, already running ads and billboards reminding voters of the ties between Trump and Robinson.

They also have a rich library to choose from to build future attacks (Trump called Robinson “Martin Luther King on steroids” and, curiously, said he was “like a fine wine”). Also remember that Harris has plenty of resources to communicate with and can leverage them in a state that pollsters like Nate Cohn of the New York Times say is already trending bluer.

So, given all that, why isn't this already a slam dunk?

The main reason is that in this election the margin of uncertainty is greater than the margin of victory. North Carolina's Republican base might still be remarkably resilient and determined to turn out and vote, no matter how dark Robinson is. Or Trump could lose North Carolina while still finding a way to chart a low-probability Electoral College path. Or, a surprise in October could be a game-changer in all swing states. Or all the polls could be wrong enough in Harris's favor right now that we get an artificially distorted picture.

Plus, if the Robinson scandal was a blow to Trump, we can't expect to see a ton of evidence of it in the remaining month of the campaign. Pollsters have made educated guesses about likely voters, and they won't have a reliable way to update their guesses about who will vote. So if there is a change that is not based on a change in voter sentiment, but on a decrease in Republican turnout, the polls might not reflect it.

In other words, there's a good chance that North Carolina will now be Schrödinger's Cat of the 2024 elections: Trump may or may not have already been politically poisoned there, but we'll have to wait until Election Day for that. know.

So no, we can't say this story is over. But there are reasonable arguments that something has fundamentally changed in the last 10 days and that Trump is now in a much more difficult situation.

Matt Robison is a writer, podcast host, and former member of Congress.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.

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