Former US China House official: Taiwan conflict is not inevitable

Washington

China was one of the most discussed international issues during the US presidential campaign.

VOA spoke with Rick Waters, former head of the State Department's Office of China Coordination and assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan, about the Biden administration's China policy.

Waters spoke about his experience with his Chinese counterparts and how he thinks Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would handle China if elected.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

VOA: How do you assess the progress made in US-China relations after the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in California last year, and do you see real and meaningful results coming out of that meeting?

Rick Waters: I think we need to look at this Woodside summit as the culmination of a number of things that have happened within the administration.

The first is that during the first period, Biden focused on rebuilding America's domestic strength and reinvigorating global partnerships and alliances, and then, from that position, he dealt with China from a position of relative strength. So during that first two-year period, the U.S.-China relationship was, in some ways, arguably not the priority. This was important, but it was handled largely through diplomacy at the leadership level, which in China's current political setup is the most important channel.

And then we know what happened in 2022 in the circumstances surrounding the visit of former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. [to Taiwan] This led to a downward spiral, and Biden and Xi made an initial effort to stabilize the relations that collapsed during their summit in Bali, but that only lasted a few months, and then the surveillance balloon was again turns things around.

So I think what we have now is a bit of a more stable foundation built around channels at the executive level, a few modest areas where joint work is happening, and a network of senior and empowered channels at the executive level. of the Cabinet, including Jake Sullivan. , which try to manage conflicts and competition rather within limits, within safeguards, to avoid the scenario of total downward spiral that we experienced in 2022.

VOA: Do you think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is inevitable, or what should the United States do to deter this invasion?

Waters: I don't think conflict is inevitable, and I think America's fundamental interest is peace and stability. This is what has anchored prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region over the past two decades. The capacity for commerce, trade, interpersonal flows at the regional level to thrive in an environment where there is no war.

And so, I think if we take that as a starting point, I don't think conflict is inevitable, but I think the United States and Taiwan are very focused on the question of how to ensure that the leaders in Beijing do not believe they have a viable military option at an acceptable cost. And if this condition is met, then I think it will be up to the diplomats and the channels that exist between the parties to handle this issue carefully.

VOA: During your career as an American diplomat, what was your experience dealing with your Chinese counterparts? What are the most notable and difficult aspects or moments that left an impression on you?

Waters: I have been fortunate to deal with Chinese diplomats for almost 30 years. And what I will say is that no matter what you think about China's politics or the political system, they have a very professional diplomatic corps. There are some very talented people in the system. What I think has changed over the last few decades is that the system has become much more disciplined. It is therefore very difficult, especially during official meetings, for Chinese diplomats to stray too far from the established line.

So I don't think we should misunderstand the talent level in the system when we look at it through its structural constraints. But I think as China's overall foreign policy has become more assertive, as you know, leaders have talked about China playing a more important role on the international stage. It has gone through periods where the wolf warriorism, the change of tone from the podium, characterized an era of Chinese diplomacy different from that which we have known before.

But I actually think that, in some ways, many in the system understand the counterproductive nature of these tactics, and I've seen a bit of a tactical recalibration in recent years in how they express publicly their opinions on foreign policy.

VOA: During this election period, the Biden administration's China policy has often been criticized by the Republican campaign for its weakness. What do you think of this?

Waters: We're in an election campaign, so obviously you'll never hear anyone say that someone's policies are too harsh. I think the honest reality is that this election is not really, in my opinion, about China. These are other problems. China is present, but if you look at how present it is in the speeches at the Republican and Democratic conventions, there are issues related to China that are important, but I think we need to maintain that perspective.

Secondly, I think the issues that I think matter most to voters are around trade and the perception of injustice, the lack of reciprocity and fentanyl, which for several years has been an issue directly linked to the producers of these chemical precursors in China, and so I think these types of issues matter on the margins, but they are not central to American voters, particularly in the swing states that will decide this election.

VOA: For China observers watching this election, how will Harris' China policy differ from President Biden's, and what awaits China if Trump returns to power?

Waters: I think the way it plays out in China is a very different story. But I think what we have to say at this point is that we are in the middle of a campaign. So, to be fair to both candidates, what we should judge is, once they form their cabinets next spring, how are they going to translate their policy positions into new policy? I think Harris' team expressed the general view that her policies would be consistent with Biden's. The Trump team and President Trump himself have discussed certain aspects of the relationship, particularly commercial, where they believe things are unbalanced.

VOA: Biden and Xi are expected to meet and meet again later this year. So, what are the prospects and expectations for this meeting?

Waters: This will be a critical moment, because this meeting which will be held either on the sidelines of the G20 [Group of 20 largest economies] summit in Brazil [November 18-19]or APEC [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] summit in Lima, Peru [November 10-16]Depending on where they take place, these meetings on the sidelines of summits are important during a presidential transition. I think they can take advantage of this to build a bridge between the two administrations. This will be easier if it's a transition from Biden to Harris, because Democrat to Democrat is more likely to be able to talk about how the bridge will work. But if it's, you know, Biden-to-Trump, I still think it's consequential.

President Biden can give his advice on how to avoid returning to the events of 2022 [and] how they can reflect on the lessons of what has been achieved since Woodside [California] Summit [in November 2023]. And I think you're probably going into this with pretty modest expectations.