Hezbollah losses strengthen Turkey against Iran: analysts

The Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon is reassuring for Turkey, which could seize the opportunity to strengthen its regional influence against its Iranian rival, analysts at AFP believe.

Despite being one of Israel's fiercest critics, Turkey has been measured in its response to blows against the Shiite militant group, armed and financed by Tehran, including the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah .

“The decapitation of Hezbollah diminishes the influence of Turkey's main regional rival, Iran, and that is not something Turkey would cry about,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a Turkey expert at the Brookings Institution. an American think tank.

– Erdogan lukewarm towards Hezbollah –

Turkey's Sunni President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently denounced Israel since beginning its devastating assault on Gaza last year, following a deadly attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

But he has not directly reacted publicly to Hezbollah's recent losses – although his foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, praised Nasrallah after his assassination.

“If this results in a long-term weakening of Iran and allied Shiite groups, including Hezbollah, it will really pave the way for Turkey to play a more dominant role” in Syria and Iraq, he said. said Gonul Tol, Turkey's Middle East director. Institute, a research center in Washington.

– Turkey's influence in Syria –

Analysts suggest Turkey is pleased with the setback for Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran, largely because of their support for Bashar al-Assad, leader of neighboring Syria.

Turkey and Hezbollah “are hardly on the same page when it comes to regional issues, particularly in Syria where the latter supports the regime and is complicit in Assad's war crimes,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund, an American think tank. reservoir.

The civil war between Assad and his rivals has destabilized Turkey's southern border, pushing millions of refugees into its territory.

“From the Turkish point of view, Iran and Hezbollah are the reasons why Syria is in this mess,” Aydintasbas said.

– Pro-Palestinian, not pro-Hezbollah –

Erdogan accused Israel of “genocide” of the Palestinians during its attack on Gaza and called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal.

Netanyahu rejected the claim, saying Israel needed to crush the Islamist group Hamas in the territory to prevent further attacks and free hostages captured by the militants.

Analysts say Turkey's sympathy for the Palestinians – who like Erdogan are Sunni Muslims – does not extend to support for Iran, Hezbollah and their other Shiite allies in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen and the factions in Iraq.

“Although opinions vary in Turkey on Nasrallah's death and Hezbollah's losses, it is evident that Turkey is less concerned about these losses than about those of Hamas,” Unluhisarcikli said, using the country's official Turkish name.

– Security outlook in Gaza –

Observers say Erdogan wants to present himself as a leader among Sunni states, particularly regarding the future security of Gaza.

He received Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in September and likely discussed a “broader coordination role” for their countries in Gaza after the conflict, said Sinan Ciddi, a Turkish political expert at the Defense Foundation Democracies, a nonprofit organization based in Washington. .

Analysts say Erdogan's tirades against Israel may have undermined his potential role as mediator in the region.

But on other fronts, “Ankara is very careful in what it says and does because its relations with Iran are always sensitive,” Aydintasbas said.

“Turkey is clearly worried about an even greater regional escalation and all-out war between Iran and Israel, with unpredictable implications. It would do everything in its power to stay away.”

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