Donald Trump's chances of losing North Carolina, according to polls

Former President Donald Trump could lose North Carolina to Kamala Harris in November as polls indicate the swing state could go either way.

A Washington Post survey of 1,001 likely voters conducted Tuesday in North Carolina shows that Trump has a 2-point lead over the vice president (50% to 48). The difference is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll, conducted between September 25 and 29, suggests that criticism of Trump-backed North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson does not harm the former president's hopes of victory in this election. Battlefield condition.

Robinson allegedly described himself as a “black Nazi” on a pornographic website's forum more than a decade ago, among other statements. Robinson has denied the allegations, calling them “salacious tabloid lies.”

Mitch Kokai, a political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank, previously suggested that the scandal surrounding Robinson would not hurt Trump in the key state. “The former president won North Carolina's electoral votes twice, despite all his own electoral baggage,” Kokai told Newsweek.

Hurricane Helena could also impact the 2024 race in North Carolina. Early voting in the state had begun before the storm hit, and the hurricane potentially affected the collection of absentee ballots or caused the destruction of polling places.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally September 25, 2024 in Mint Hill, North Carolina. Polls suggest Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in North Carolina. Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally September 25, 2024 in Mint Hill, North Carolina. Polls suggest Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in North Carolina. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

If Trump wins North Carolina and the key swing states of Pennsylvania and Georgia, he will reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election overall, barring an upset elsewhere.

Trump could also win by defeating Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states: North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, and by flipping Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Polling averages point to a narrow Trump victory in the toss-up state.

According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in North Carolina (47.7% to 47.5) on Tuesday.

The RealClearPolitics average puts Trump with a slightly larger lead in North Carolina, by 0.8 points (48.7% to 47.9).

Generally speaking, polls reflect the state favoring a close race.

A poll by ECU's Center for Survey Research of 1,005 likely voters showed Trump with a two-point lead over Harris in North Carolina (49 percent to 47). The survey was conducted between September 23 and 26, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A CNN/SSRS survey, conducted September 20-25, shows Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent. The survey included 931 likely voters in North Carolina, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

According to an AtlasIntel poll of 1,173 likely voters, Harris was ahead 50 percent to 48. The poll was conducted between September 20 and 25. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Fox News poll gave Harris a 2-point advantage over Trump among registered voters (50% to 48). Among a smaller sample of likely voters, Trump leads Harris by one point (50% to 49).

The Fox News poll was conducted between September 20 and 24 with a sample of 991 registered voters in the state and 787 likely voters. The margin of error for results for registered voters was plus or minus 3 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.

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