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Imran Khan calls for further protests

Imran Khan calls for further protests
Imran Khan calls for further protests

 


Welcome to the South Asian foreign policy brief.

This week's highlights: Pakistani opposition speaks out against proposed constitutional amendments, Afghanistan's top US State Department official leaves without replacement, and police crack down hard on protests in Bangladesh.

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A fiery message from jailed Pakistani opposition leader Imran Khan was shared on his official X account on Monday, calling for protests in Punjab province, where Pakistan's military headquarters is located, this weekend. The provincial government quickly banned public gatherings in areas where Khan had called for protests.

The message highlighted rising tensions between Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and Pakistan's civilian and military leadership, the latest chapter in a confrontation that dates back to Khan's ouster as prime minister in 2022.

This time, the main trigger is proposed constitutional amendments that would strengthen government control over the judiciary and make it easier to ban political parties. The legislation has inflamed an opposition angered by years of government repression against PTI leaders and supporters. Despite the state's attempts to limit protests, the PTI continued to mobilize, albeit in smaller numbers.

After tight security measures in Rawalpindi blocked a PTI protest on Saturday, a senior party leader called for revolution, warning that if a single bullet was fired at PTI protesters, they would respond with 10. On Sunday, Khan was charged with new terrorism charges. linked to the demonstration, adding to the numerous charges he already faces accusing him of incitement.

The PTI’s bellicose rhetoric is becoming a trend. At recent rallies, protesters have threatened to release Khan from prison by force if he is not released. Party leaders are also speaking out with greater urgency, emphasizing the need to continue protests until the government falls. On Monday, Khan's sister, Aleema Khan, warned that without sustained protests, Khan could be placed in military detention.

This escalation may just be bluster, but it could also be an attempt to pressure the authorities into releasing Khanthe's top PTI target or making concessions on other issues , such as the proposed amendments.

Those responsible will not take this lightly. The PTI's challenge has proven particularly difficult for Pakistan's powerful military: the party has successfully exploited tools of dissent, including social media, and an increasingly politicized diaspora. Yet, from a military perspective, the PTI crossed a red line in May 2023, when political protesters attacked military installations following Khan's arrest.

As a result, the military intensified its repression against the party, and today the military has things exactly where it wants: many of the senior PTI leaders have been arrested or pressured to that they leave the party or politics completely. Restrictions on public demonstrations have largely neutralized the PTI's street power.

Meanwhile, growing efforts to strangle the internet, first through periodic shutdowns and social media bans and then through a China-style national firewall, threaten to undermine another key strength of the PTI : his formidable ability to mobilize online, which helped PTI-backed independents stun the nation and win greater power. number of seats in this year's legislative elections.

Pakistan's top security officials, including its new intelligence director who was previously a top military disciplinarian, are unlikely to show much mercy to protesters who heed Khan's call and are trying to defy bans on demonstrations. The army is already grappling with separate protest movements in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces against state repression.

For Pakistani leaders, reducing the size of the PTI could amount to a Pyrrhic victory; the party still has a broad base of support but lacks the space to peacefully channel its many demands. This is troubling for the country's social stability, particularly amid economic tensions, rising terrorism and growing public discontent with the conflict in the Middle East.

The top US official in Afghanistan is moving on. The U.S. State Department announced Tuesday that Tom West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, has been moved to a new role focused on sanctions policy. A statement from Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not mention a direct successor for West, suggesting his position will not be retained.

Instead, the State Department's Afghanistan policy will be led by three incumbents: Karen Decker, the Doha-based Afghanistan mission chief; Rina Amiri, the special envoy for Afghan women, girls and human rights; and John Mark Pommersheim, deputy assistant secretary of state for Central Asia.

West held his position for three years and was previously deputy to his predecessor, Zalmay Khalilzad. The alleged elimination of a position widely considered the top post in Afghanistan at the State Department underscores the extent to which U.S. policy attention on Afghanistan has receded since the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021.

Other U.S. agencies remain engaged in Afghanistan: the U.S. Agency for International Development is providing humanitarian assistance and the Department of Defense is paying particular attention to the growing threat posed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State of Khorasan. But the State Department has taken the lead on key elements of U.S. policy, including how to engage with the Taliban and defend detained U.S. citizens.

New IMF program for Pakistan. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced last Friday that its board of directors had approved a three-year, $7 billion financing plan for Pakistan, including an immediate disbursement of $1 billion. The statement commended Pakistan for strong economic growth, reduction in inflation and replenishment of foreign exchange reserves.

The deal gives the Pakistani government something to celebrate, but like other IMF deals with Pakistan, it's not exactly a political boon. This will require austerity measures that could hit the population hard, particularly with poverty levels increasing in recent years; the cost of living in Pakistan is now the highest in Asia.

The recent economic stabilization in Pakistan, neighboring Sri Lanka, has not translated into relief for a critical mass of the population. The government, which is already unpopular, could eventually be hit by new waves of public anger.

Protests turn violent in Bangladesh. Police violently suppressed protests in Bangladesh on Monday after thousands of people, mostly workers and activists, took to the streets to demand higher wages and better job opportunities. One person died and around 30 others were injured after police opened fire.

This is a sensitive issue for the caretaker government of Bangladesh. The mass movement that toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August sparked a broader wave of activism, fueled largely by economic tensions. Police carried out a brutal crackdown on peaceful protests this summer and faced violent reprisals in the days after Hasina fled the country.

Many police officers, citing safety concerns, went on strike before returning to work on August 12. Bangladesh's caretaker government is keen to demonstrate its commitment to a gentler form of governance, but it is also facing pressure from the public and the business community. to restore law and order.

Amid closely watched elections in Indian-administered Kashmir, with results due to be announced on October 8, the upcoming polls in Haryana state on Saturday were easy to ignore. But the stakes are high, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeking to become the first to rule the northern breadbasket state for three consecutive terms.

In this sense, the Haryana elections, like those in Kashmir, constitute an important test for the BJP after its lackluster performance in this year's national elections. Victory in Haryana, however, will not be easy for Modis party. BJP candidates performed poorly in the state in this year's national elections, despite the party's convincing victory in Haryana in the 2014 and 2019 elections.

India Today reports that the BJP is campaigning aggressively in rural areas, where the opposition Indian National Congress party has made major inroads this year. He also hopes to capitalize on the infighting within the ranks of the Congress party in Haryana.

In the New Indian Express, scholar Shiv Visvanathan writes about the legacy of Mahatma Gandhi, whose birthday is Wednesday. A mistake that many members of today's generation make is to think that Gandhi is outdated. It is the Gandhians who must offer new experiences, new books, new explorations to renew the idea of ​​India as a plural civilization, he asserts.

Writing in the Daily Star, economist Tasneem Raihan explains how Bangladesh can recover the estimated $100 billion that has been laundered abroad over the past 15 years. If Bangladesh is serious about recovering laundered wealth, it can learn from the experiences of countries like Malaysia, the Philippines and, especially, Nigeria, he writes.

Writing in Nepali Times, writer Pratibha Tuladhar praises the recent publication of four children's books about Nepali women. The common thread that links the four books is the determination and strength of character of the four women presented. The text is full of anecdotes of inner strength that helped them carve unique paths, she writes.

Sources

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2/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/02/pakistan-protest-imran-khan-politics-tension-military/

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