Politics
Turkish inflation falls less than expected in September to 49.4%
Turkey's annual inflation slowed less than expected in September to 49.4%, according to official data released Thursday, a figure that analysts say could disappoint central bank officials after a series of rate hikes. interest.
Turkey's central bank began raising rates last year in a bid to combat soaring prices, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan abandoned his opposition to orthodox monetary policy.
The September inflation figure was higher than the 48.1 percent consumer price increase forecast by Turkish economists cited by local media.
Inflation had reached 52 percent in August.
“The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkey's headline interest rate to 49.4% year-on-year (year-on-year) in September will be a disappointment for central bank policymakers,” said Nicholas Farr, economist for emerging Europe at the London-based bank. Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.
He said the figure showed a cycle of monetary easing was unlikely to start before 2025 – later than most other analysts had expected.
Last month, the central bank kept its main interest rate stable at 50 percent for the sixth consecutive month and said it remained closely attentive to inflationary risks.
According to central bank forecasts, inflation is expected to fall to 38 percent at the end of this year, to 14 percent next year and to 9 percent in 2026.
Farr said inflation would fall further over the coming months, but the central bank's end-of-year forecast of 38 percent “seemed well out of reach.”
He added that the central bank would be particularly concerned that, month-on-month, core inflation continues to accelerate.
Inflation rose 2.97 percent on a monthly basis in September, statistics agency TUIK said.
– “People will feel a slowdown” –
Erdogan said this week that inflation was on a downward trend.
“Our citizens will feel the slowdown more in the bazaars and in their shopping carts,” he added.
According to the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, retail prices in Istanbul alone, Turkey's largest city, increased by 3.9 percent on a monthly basis and by 59.2 percent on a monthly basis. annually in September.
Turkey's annual inflation rate hit a decades-high 85% in October 2022, according to official data.
It fell to 38.2% in June 2023 before rising again. It reached 75 percent in May this year, but began to decline in June.
The largest price increases in September came from housing, which rose almost 98 percent on an annual basis, followed by education at 93.6 percent, and restaurants and hotels at 65.4 percent. hundred.
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