Kamala Harris holds 66 vote lead over Donald Trump, says leading data scientist

Data scientist Thomas Miller has developed a prediction model for the 2024 presidential election that he says is far more reliable than the polls constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the November 5 results. Instead, the Northwestern University professor deploys a framework based on the odds set by people who bet their money not on the candidate they intend to vote for, but on the one they hope to win . This author began following Miller's predictions during the 2020 White House contest and the two subsequent Georgia Senate elections in early January 2021. Miller called first in the 12 electoral votes and rightly ran that Democrats would sweep both Senate seats when polls showed Republicans with a significant lead. His calls for margins of victory proved correct.

Given Miller's excellent record in the 2020 cycle, it's very informative to look at his prospects for this year's race. And as with the Georgia runoff, his view is surprisingly contrarian: While most pundits and prognosticators see a stalemate or failure, Miller's numbers show that the Harris-Walz ticket is far in the lead and the large Democratic advantage is establishing itself in a remarkable situation. stable model.

Miller's formula translates betting odds into electoral votes

Miller's model focuses on prices posted on America's most active political betting site, PredictIT. It is a very liquid market that trades an average of 37,000 shares per day. Its guiding principle: Both candidates' chances, after eliminating bets on third-party candidates, accurately reflect their share of the popular vote. If a candidate's price on PredictIT is 54 cents, those 54 cents can be used to estimate vote shares, which will be lower, while tracking those odds. Miller also concludes, after evaluating the results of every presidential election since 1960, that popular vote shares reliably predict the percentage of the electoral tally each candidate will receive. The heart of this model is based on 60 years of presidential election history, Miller admits. He emphasizes his respect for the work of Allan Lichtman of American University, who also bases his widely followed predictions on the history of presidential elections.

The polls rely on much smaller samples than PredictIT's, Miller says. They usually only survey between 500 and 1,500 people. There is no consistency among the respondents. Pollsters all use different groups of likely voters. They also use different methods, so there is no single way to analyze their data. In contrast, tens of thousands of people vote with their money on PredictIT. If they're right, they turn 57 cents into dollars. That’s a substantial return on investment. Participants are motivated to stay in the market until after the election to earn profits, so there is consistency within the group of investors setting prices.

The fact that PredictIT is open 24/7 is another advantage. Therefore, you can sell your shares at any time, Miller continues. If things aren't going well for the Democrats, you sell the Democratic stocks and buy the Republican stocks. Investors always ask me: I have an idea of ​​what will happen on November 5 and I want to make money on it. Tens of thousands of participants express their opinion on the outcome of their bets. Bettors come together to form a political market that resembles a stock market where investors used their best information to predict future prices of stocks, bonds or commodities.

Between now and Election Day, Miller is releasing projected electoral vote (EV) totals for both candidates in real time; he updates the figures shortly after the PredictIT price change, on his website The Virtual Tout. On October 2 at 11 a.m., Miller placed Harris-Walz ahead of Trump-Vance by 302 votes to 236, a significant gain of 66 electoral votes. The bad news for Republicans: The Harris ticket has been ahead since the Harris-Trump debate three weeks ago, and bettors show little tendency to change their minds.

The vice-presidential debate only slightly moved the markets

By Miller's measures, the Oct. 1 vice presidential showdown changed relatively little the trajectory of a race that appears to have reached some sort of steady state. Throughout the duration of the 90-minute debate, there was no change in the forecast. But by midnight in October, a slight shift occurred in favor of the Republican ticket, suggesting that Vance's performance was slightly better than Walz's, Miller told Fortune. In this case, only six votes went from Democrats to Republicans, so this is a minor change showing a slight advantage in favor of Vance.

Miller recently made a key adjustment to his model. I've found that the model doesn't work well when the odds are high in a candidate's favor, he says. This is because when people perceive a candidate as extremely likely to win, they bet only on that candidate, thereby skewing prices too much in their favor. At the extreme margins, the initial model distorted the estimate of vote shares. This has been corrected since September 22.

Miller found that the turning point in the campaign was Trump's appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on July 31, when he suggested Harris had misled voters about her race. Before this gaffe, Trump was running with about 290 electoral votes, 20 more than the number needed to win. The day after the NABJ event, Harris took the lead and she has remained in front ever since. Trump briefly withdrew almost just before their September 10 debate. Days earlier, Trump got a boost, thanks to New York state judges' decision to delay sentencing in the GOP flag-bearers' hush money case until after the elections. On September 10, Trump had 261, just 9 shy of a victory, and Harris had 277, Miller says. By the end of the day, Harris had added 35 to get to 312. Miller also credits Taylor Swift's endorsement, delivered moments after the contestants left the stage, for giving Harris an extra boost.

Harris's electoral tally skyrocketed over the next two weeks, reaching a peak of 337 electoral votes on September 20.

Since Harris peaked after the debate, her margins have declined again. Is this the start of a resurgence for Donald Trump?

Since Harris reached that peak, her electoral tally has fallen from nearly 340 to the current 302, and Trump has rebounded from just 201 to 236. But to Miller, this change does not indicate that Trump is staging a comeback. He notes that over the past week, which spans the vice presidential debate, Harris' positions have been consistent with just over 300 electoral votes. Above all, he says, bettors' opinions on who will win seem fixed. And for Trump to regain the White House, a large portion of bettors must move to his camp.

I don't view Harris' decline as significant, Miller said. Investors in prediction markets sometimes change their minds, but few do. He highlights the low volumes on PredictIT. The last time we saw a spike was around the time of Swift's debate and endorsement, he adds. There was a slight improvement for Trump after the vice presidential debate, but the last major event that tipped the scales was the presidential debate. Today, most people don't change their bets, they keep their contracts in place.

Election numbers show that Harris is, for now, on track to sweep most swing states.

By basic electoral math, Miller says, Harris now holds control over most of the big swing states, appearing to be a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan. He adds that Harris also had Georgia in her column when she hit 337 EV at the peak of her post-debate climb on September 20. Now he says Trump's modest raise has put the Peach State back in play, and Trump is up, too. good luck in North Carolina. But for now, the states that appear to be the most crucial since the start of the race remain out of his reach.

The world has become much more dangerous in recent days as the dockers' strike threatens to drive up food prices and the Middle East teeters on the brink of all-out war. Big events could yet change the course of this election. But for now, Harris is in charge, Miller said. The betting sites have figured this out and, as expected, the polls are way behind the curve. Oddsmakers say Trump squandered a big lead by stumbling in front of NABJ and botched a fledgling comeback by floundering in the debate. He may need a breakthrough moment or an error from Harris to turn the race around. It could happen. But oddsmakers doubt that will happen, and as Millers has shown, oddsmakers are best at cutting through the fog of polls and pundits and getting elections right.

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