Politics
Sudden Shift in Metals Confidence in China Boosts Optimism for LME Week BNN Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Metals traders arriving in London for LME week were surprised to find their Chinese friends and clients.
Over the past two years, the largest consumer and producer has been a hitman for metals bulls. And suddenly the Chinese representatives were among the most optimistic of all the debates.
In private conversations and public forums, many market participants who have spent their careers observing China's economy said they believe the latest stimulus package unveiled last week is of great political significance and represents a game-changer of Xi Jinping aimed at once again placing economic development among governments. absolute priorities.
Chinese stocks have already seen their biggest rise in more than a decade, while iron ore, one of the commodities most exposed to swings in China's property market, has soared more than 20%. As the biggest annual gathering on the metals calendar draws to a close, several top metals traders said they haven't seen their Chinese counterparts this optimistic since before the coronavirus pandemic.
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades roll by, Amelia Fu, head of global commodities strategy at Bank of China International, quoted Vladimir Lenin at an LME Week event. We are seeing momentum last week with the release of unprecedented policy measures. I truly believe we are living in a time where significant and fundamental changes are occurring in the marketplace. We are going to see a major change in the situation.
At a private lunch earlier this week, one attendee recounted how traders and analysts around the table took turns expressing their largely pessimistic views on the metals. That is, until the conversation turned to the Chinese executive present, the rest of the group was surprised to learn that they had neglected the importance of policy change in China.
Always careful
To be sure, many, including some senior Chinese metals executives, remain cautious about behaving too optimistically in the short term. Visible inventories of metals like copper and aluminum have increased significantly this year. And Chinese New Year falls relatively early, meaning there are only a few weeks left before the major metals buyer begins to pull back for the holiday season. And it will likely take time for improving Chinese confidence to translate into higher real demand for metals.
However, after the stimulus measures, including the reduction of interest rates, the release of liquidity for banks, liquidity support for stocks and the easing of restrictions on the purchase of homes, positive indicators had already emerged . In Shenzhen, southern China, near Hong Kong, Bloomberg reported that some buyers visited showrooms at midnight after the country's least affordable region relaxed its rules to allow residents to buy more properties.
Data released by state news agency Xinhua, citing the China State Railway Group, shows that China recorded 21.4 million train trips on the first day of Golden Week which began in October, a record for a single day.
If Chinese people living in urban areas start to see an economic recovery, particularly in the real estate sector, there is great potential for further growth, Linda Yueh, assistant professor of economics at London Business School, said at the an LME Week event.
–With help from Mark Burton and Archie Hunter.
2024 Bloomberg LP
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