Here's Who's Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls

Top line

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is near stalemate with less than five weeks until the election, according to a series of surveys this month, with the latest four showing Harris with a lead ranging from two to five points.

US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks after Iran launched around 200 missiles at Israel, in… [+] Josephine Butler Parks Center in Washington, DC, October 1, 2024. (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images Key Facts

Harris leads 50% to 48% in an Emerson poll released Thursday, and she is up five points, 51% to 46%, in the weekly Morning Consults poll.

Harris leads by five points, 49% to 44%, in a Susquehanna poll released this week, and by three points in an Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday, with margins equal to those of the previous Economist/YouGovs poll conducted on 21-24 september.

Harris was up 5 points, 50% to 45%, in last week's Morning Consult poll, down from a six-point lead (the widest yet in Morning Consult polls) a week earlier. early, although his approval rating among likely voters reached an all-time high (53% to Trump's 45%).

Three polls over the past month – a Quinnipiac poll released on September 24, a New York Times/Siena poll released on September 19, and a CNN/SSRS poll released on September 24 – show Trump and Harris tied, while virtually all other polls put Harris in the lead.

Harris has erased Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her advantage has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the average weighted by FiveThirtyEights surveys.

Large number

2.2. That's the number of points by which Harris leads Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEights average shows Harris with a 2.8 point lead.

How Does Harris Fare Against Trump in Swing States?

Harris leads Trump by a total point in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to the Cook Political Report survey released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five of the states, Trump is ahead by two points in Georgia and they are tied in North Carolina.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they didn't know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but it remains significantly lower than previous leads by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and by 50 points in the 2016 poll. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

What is the impact of the debate on the polls?

Pre-debate surveys found that Harris' rising poll numbers appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters conducted September 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, in down from a three-point lead in August. Harris rose two points, 47% to 49%, in a September 3-4 Emerson College poll of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson's August poll . Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to have a significant impact on the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released September 19 found that the majority of voters in every demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris' September 10 debate performance, with 67 percent saying that she had done well, compared to 40% who said the same thing. about Trump (Trump was ahead of Harris by 48% to 47% in the Times/Siena surveys from early September and late July). The poll also finds Harris and Trump tied at 47%. Two other Sept. 19 polls give Harris a slight edge: She's up four points (49% to 45%) in a YouGov/Economist survey of registered voters, and likely up two points (50% to 48%). according to Fox News. poll of voters, a slight change after Harris trailed by one point in a Fox poll in early August and trailed by just two points in a YouGov poll in early September. Harris was up 52 to 46 percent among likely voters and 51 to 47 percent among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her lead of six points among likely voters. in late August and early August, according to ABC/Ipsos surveys, even though 63 percent of Americans said Harris won last week's debate.

Tangent

Harris narrowed Trump's lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy .

Key context

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced her intention to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her formal nomination in a virtual call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his choice for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris the winner of the debate because she repeatedly pointed at Trump, leading him to step aside of the subject. Harris' rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today. today, while Republican enthusiasm remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released August 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate, but it didn't largely change voters' minds (Forbes)

Trump's lead over Biden and Harris jumped after RNC, HarrisX/Forbes poll finds (Forbes)

Here's how Kamala Harris is doing in the polls against Trump as Biden drops out and endorses Harris (Forbes)

Harris leads Trump unchanged after DNC, according to first poll (Forbes)

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/03/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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