Politics
Turkish inflation falls less than expected in September to 49.4 percent
Turkey's annual inflation slowed less than expected in September to 49.4%, official data showed on Thursday, a figure that analysts said could disappoint central bank officials after a series of rate hikes. interest, reported Agence France-Presse.
Turkey's central bank began raising rates last year in a bid to combat soaring prices, after President Recep Tayyip Erdoan abandoned his opposition to orthodox monetary policy.
The September inflation figure was higher than the 48.1 percent consumer price increase forecast by Turkish economists cited by local media.
Inflation had reached 52 percent in August.
“Smaller-than-expected drop in Turkey's headline interest rate to 49.4% year-on-year [year-on-year] “September will be a disappointment for central bank policymakers,” Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at London-based Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.
He said the figure showed a cycle of monetary easing was unlikely to start before 2025 – later than most other analysts had expected.
Last month, the central bank kept its main interest rate stable at 50 percent for the sixth consecutive month and said it remained closely attentive to inflation risks.
According to central bank forecasts, inflation is expected to fall to 38 percent at the end of this year, 14 percent next year and 9 percent in 2026.
Even though inflation will fall further in the coming months, the central bank's year-end forecast of 38% “seems well out of reach,” Farr said.
He added that the central bank would be particularly concerned that, month-on-month, core inflation continues to accelerate.
Inflation increased by 2.97 percent on a monthly basis in September, the TurkStat agency reported.
“The disinflation process that began in June continues,” Finance Minister Mehmet Imek commented on X.
“We continue to implement all our policies in line with our objective of price stability, in a coordinated and determined manner,” he said.
Erdoan also said this week that inflation was on a downward trend.
“Our citizens will feel the slowdown more in the bazaars and in their shopping carts,” he added.
ar Kutman, Turkey expert at KNG Securities, said that although inflation is falling, “it is not the rapid downward trajectory that some had hoped for.”
Despite this relatively modest improvement, it shows, according to him, that the orthodox monetary policy now supported by Erdoan's government is working.
“The government's resistance to high interest rates has waned and there is confidence that orthodox monetary policy will be given more time.”
According to the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, retail prices in Istanbul alone, Turkey's largest, increased by 3.9 percent on a monthly basis and by 59.2 percent on an annual basis in september.
Turkey's annual inflation rate hit a decades-high 85% in October 2022, according to official data.
It fell to 38.2% in June 2023 before rising again. It reached 75 percent in May this year, but began to decline in June.
The largest price increases in September came from housing, which rose almost 98 percent on an annual basis, followed by education at 93.6 percent, and restaurants and hotels at 65.4 percent. hundred.
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