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Map shows states Kamala Harris and Donald Trump leading polls 5 weeks before election

Map shows states Kamala Harris and Donald Trump leading polls 5 weeks before election
Map shows states Kamala Harris and Donald Trump leading polls 5 weeks before election

 


Vice President Kamala Harris' poll numbers rebounded after she replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic leader over the summer, although they haven't moved much since, high-quality surveys show them most recent ones still showing a close race against former President Donald. Trump less than five weeks until Election Day.

The 2024 presidential campaign is entering its home stretch, with most voters having decided who they will vote for and early voting already underway in 20 states. Candidates have limited time to convince the handful of undecided voters who remain and must now focus on motivating their respective bases to participate.

Democrats faced disastrous poll numbers over the summer, when concerns about Biden's age and acuity exploded after his poor debate performance in June. These numbers ultimately prompted Biden to withdraw from the race, leaving Harris as the candidate.

Record fundraising and a better debate performance against Trump helped Harris bring the race back to neck and neck, but the two candidates are still divided on the most critical battlegrounds heading into November.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Las Vegas, Nevada, September 29, 2024. Former President Donald Trump speaks in Waunakee, Wisconsin, October 1, 2024. A map shows which states Harris and Trump are leading …Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Las Vegas, Nevada, September 29, 2024. Former President Donald Trump speaks in Waunakee, Wisconsin, October 1, 2024. A map shows which states Harris and Trump are in the lead five weeks before election day. More from RONDA CHURCHILL/AFP via Getty Images; Scott Olson/Getty Images

The map below shows where Harris and Trump are leading in the most recent polls as of October 2, based on a total of 538 polls.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

The states in purple are the most critical battlegrounds, where Harris and Trump both hold minor leads in recent polls. Harris and Trump may have a small lead in these states, but they are well within the margin of error, and forecasters view these states as mere gambling.

Harris has a narrow lead in key Rust Belt states and Nevada, according to all 538 polls. She leads Michigan by 1.8 points, Nevada by 1 point, Pennsylvania by 0.7 points and Wisconsin by 1.8 points.

Meanwhile, Trump performs slightly better in Sunbelt swing states. It leads Arizona by 1.4 points, Georgia by 1.2 points and North Carolina by 0.6 points, according to the total.

States in which Democrats or Republicans are considered easy favorites are colored either dull red or blue. Polls for Harris may not be available for these states, but they were won by their respective parties by double digits in 2020 and are not considered competitive.

States in which Harris or Trump have a single-digit lead are shaded a brighter red or blue.

For Republicans, that includes Florida and Texas, potentially competitive states in which Democrats hope to outperform compared to 2020. It also includes Ohio and Iowa, two states easily won by Trump four years ago, but where recent polls suggest his lead may have diminished since the summer.

In Iowa, for example, a Selzer & Co./The Des Moines Register poll of 656 likely voters Sept. 8-11 showed Trump up just four points over Harris (47% to 43%). , compared to a June poll that showed him 18 points ahead of Biden.

Meanwhile, four Democratic-leaning states have produced polls in the single digits in recent weeks. That includes Minnesota, home of Harris' vice presidential candidate, Gov. Tim Walz. Polls show the race in Minnesota is closer than it was four years ago, and experts previously told Newsweek that Republicans could win.

That also includes Virginia, where Republicans remain cautiously optimistic as early voting gets underway. An Emerson College poll of 860 likely voters September 22-24 showed Harris up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent) in the Commonwealth.

New Hampshire and New Mexico, which have supported Democrats in every presidential election since 2008, have also seen single-digit margins recently, although Harris remains the favorite in both cases.

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2/ https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-map-polls-1962949

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