Concerns about fraud and non-citizen voting ahead of electionExBulletin

Former President Donald Trump takes the stage after speaking at a campaign event in Indiana, Pennsylvania, September 23. Behind Trump, Republicans are invited to vote in numbers “too large to be rigged”. Alex Brandon/AP .

switch captionAlex Brandon/AP

A majority of Americans fear this year's general election will be tainted by fraud, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Thursday, a worrying result for the thousands of local election workers across the country tasked with administering the vote.

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans say they are concerned or very concerned about voter fraud in this election, a figure that experts say is largely due to Donald Trump's continued false insistence that we cannot trust the elections. Eighty-eight percent of voters who say they support the former president say they are concerned about fraud, compared to 29% of those who support Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

In the four years since the 2020 election, there has never been evidence of widespread voter fraud in that election, and numerous audits, studies, and investigations (including those led by Republicans) have confirmed the results repeatedly.

Yet as voting has begun in many parts of the country, election officials are struggling to convince voters who listen to political figures who insist the results will be tainted.

Local elections officials say they have spent countless hours trying to educate voters about the checks and balances that make fraud unlikely and rare, but it's unclear whether those efforts have had much of an impact. And they fear the stage is set for Trump to try again to overturn the results, or for his supporters to commit violence, if they believe the election was stolen from him.

This conversation goes much deeper than even the mechanics of election administration, said Stephen Richer, the Republican registrar of Maricopa County, Arizona. It's more about how do you convince someone of the truth?

Richer, who lost his re-election bid earlier this year to a GOP challenger, has continued to push back against baseless fraud claims since taking office following Trump's 2020 defeat . And he has spoken openly about the threats he has received, including from a number of men who have been indicted for threatening to kill him.

In an interview with NPR last month, Richer said the specific election conspiracy theory that has gained momentum in recent months concerns non-U.S. citizens voting illegally and influencing the results.

The new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll confirmed this trend, with 52% of respondents saying they are concerned about non-citizens voting for the president in this year's election, even though it is illegal, and it There has never been any evidence to support the idea that non-citizens register and vote in anything but microscopic numbers.

NPR reported in the spring that far-right figures, including Trump, X owner Elon Musk and conservative lawyer Cleta Mitchell, were beginning to focus their voting messages on noncitizens ahead of the presidential election. The new survey finds that 85% of Trump supporters say they are concerned about non-citizen voting.

Ninety percent of Trump supporters also believe that all immigrants who entered the country illegally should be deported.

The idea of ​​mass deportation, a draconian measure championed by Trump, is now common, with 59% of voters agreeing with the idea.

Marist surveyed 1,628 adults for the survey, which took place Friday through Tuesday. The overall poll sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, with larger margins of error for subgroups.

Voter confidence is higher in local elections

It has long been a truism about elections that voters have much less confidence in elections elsewhere, but have more confidence in the electoral system where they live. The new survey results also confirm this.

Nearly 80% of voters surveyed said they were confident their state or local government would hold a fair and accurate election in November.

Tina Barton, a former Republican election official from Rochester Hills, Michigan, told NPR that the most effective way to build confidence in elections is to continue to remind people that voting is a local business and that election officials are also human beings in their community.

These are people who live and work in your neighborhood, go to the same church as you, your kids play soccer together, Barton said. This is always a neighborhood transaction.

Another likely partisan divide in voting methods

The poll also provided insight into how people plan to vote this year, with the long-term trend of voting earlier and earlier looking set to continue.

About half of registered voters said they planned to vote early, either in person at a polling place or by mail, and half said they planned to vote in person on Election Day.

Some partisan differences in these methods still exist, after Trump's 2020 efforts to demonize mail-in voting during the pandemic. About 71% of likely voters who say they plan to vote by mail support Harris, while 58% of expected Election Day voters say they support Trump.

Harris has a slim lead over Trump

The presidential race continues to be hotly contested.

Among likely voters that Marist describes as voters who say they will definitely vote this year, Harris holds a slight lead over Trump, 50% to 48%. This is consistent with the previous NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, conducted in September, and with national polling averages.

Trump holds a narrow 4-point advantage among independents, and the survey highlights a wide gender gap: Trump leads Harris by 16 percentage points among men, while Harris leads Trump by 18 points among women.

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