Politics
Will Kemi Badenoch be the new Boris Johnson?
October 4, 2024 – 7:00 a.m.
It probably won't be clear for a day or two whether this week's Conservative Party conference actually shakes up what has so far been a long but uninspiring contest. Triumphs and tribulations that seem important at home may not trickle down to the rest of the country or even Tory members.
One of the candidates who had a difficult few days was Kemi Badenoch, who was involved in a dispute over maternity pay and with polls suggesting that Robert Jenrick is close the gap with her among the members.
However, on Wednesday afternoon, it was she who received the loudest cheers as the four leadership candidates delivered their speeches in the main hall. The enthusiasm of her core supporters appears intact, although a torrid media cycle has reinforced some MPs' concerns about how she would fare as opposition leader.
This gap between MPs and MPs is the central problem of Badenoch's campaign. Almost all surveys available forecast she will win the final round, which will be decided by member votes. However, he is not clear that it can reach this stage. Jenrick currently leads the pack for MP nominations, and there are more than enough votes on the One Nation side to put James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat in the final.
If that happens, it will be Badenoch's responsibility. Parliamentary rounds are a vital step in the process, ensuring the leader is acceptable to the parliamentary party and protecting the Conservatives against their own version of Jeremy Corbyn.
But they could still pose a dilemma for the new leader. Whoever wins will inherit an incredibly difficult mandate, and for the Conservative Party to be fit to run for election in 2029, some unpleasant realities will have to be faced. The atmosphere could have been strangely floating in Birmingham, but members' appetite for nasty drugs remains untested.
If the new leader becomes unpopular, which is entirely possible, it would be deeply destabilizing to have an alternative candidate waiting. For example, a candidate who polls suggested would have been the members' choice if she had been offered to them as an option. Just think of Boris Johnson, who loomed on his immediate predecessor and successors while cultivating broad conservative support.
Badenoch's leadership campaign may certainly not have been, but it could have been calibrated to this result. She largely missed the first half of the contest and adamantly refused to be swayed by anything resembling politics.
Her not in Birmingham this week had the same broad strokes as Jenricks, but without the details. Where he listed five broad focus areas and a series of specific policies to flesh them out, Badenoch promised a bold and comprehensive audit of almost everything and nothing in particular.
It's a tricky line, given the selectorate. It's quite easy say that in power, the conservatives spoke on the right, but governed on the left; it's even harder to question why this happened in the first place. Conservative MPs have been at the forefront of resistance to the building of everything from houses to prisons to pylons; taxes and immigration have continued to rise to finance public spending such as the winter fuel allowance, a payment to the wealthy who Badenoch supports. Additionally, there was a relative lack of focus on housing in her speech despite her serving as Shadow Housing Secretary.
Badenoch thus risks falling into exactly the same trap as other recent Conservative leaders, starting with David Cameron. That is: turn easy homilies about lower taxes and a smaller government into concrete cuts in spending and red tape, and translate big commitments on immigration into an exhausting fight with powerful special interests and the Treasury.
But none of that matters if she doesn't win. Instead, Badenoch could be well placed to present herself as the party's queen on the water', with her own power base ready to attack whoever becomes Tory leader. If that happens, she will always be ready to remind everyone who will listen of the grandiose and fuzzy prizes that conservatives could have won.
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