How Israel's invasion of Lebanon poses risks for Turkey

How Israel's invasion of Lebanon poses risks for Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo's suggestion last week that Israel's next target would be Turkey marks a crucial shift in rhetoric as the first anniversary of the start of the Gaza war approaches. While Turkey has always characterized Israeli aggression as a threat to regional peace, framing it as a direct threat to Turkey itself is a notable development.

Turkey's geopolitical position inevitably ties it closely to the conflict in Gaza, particularly in light of Iranian military responses to Israeli actions. Turkish statements reflect not only concerns for regional stability but also the broader implications of the war, and Turkish authorities have arrested and charged dozens of people suspected of having ties to Mossad.

Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus expressed similar sentiments to Erdogan, and some journalists and policymakers also highlighted the Israeli threat to Turkey. Greater Israel or the promised land mentioned in the Torah includes all or part of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Kuwait and Turkey. This threat perception was fueled by a controversial Jerusalem Post article specifically referring to Lebanon. The article was deleted after a backlash, but it sparked heated discussions on social media, with critics accusing the publication of supporting expansionist ideologies under religious pretexts. The incident amplified Turkish concerns.

Nonetheless, it appears that Turkish policymakers are sending a message less to Israel than to the United States. As a NATO member, Turkey is unlikely to be a direct military target for Israel, but the United States' unwavering support for Israel is a real concern for Ankara. While Turkey remained cautious after the Iranian missile attack on Israel last week, it was particularly concerned after President Joe Biden's promise that the United States would help Israel defend itself against further strikes. And even if the Israeli offensive in Lebanon is not a surprise, its intensity is starting to cause concern in Ankara.

As a NATO member, Turkey is unlikely to be a direct military target for Israel, but the United States' unwavering support for Israel is a real concern for Ankara.

Sinem Cengiz

Turkish engagement in Lebanon reflects a broader strategy in the Middle East. Although it is widely believed that Turkish actions in Lebanon are aimed at countering Iranian influence, another motivation appears to be a direct counterattack against Israel. For decades, Turkey has actively pursued a multidimensional foreign policy in Lebanon, seeking to strengthen its influence through humanitarian and development assistance, while supporting the country's territorial integrity. As part of Turkey's humanitarian policy, hundreds of Lebanese citizens arrived in Istanbul after fleeing Israeli airstrikes.

Erdoan warned that the consequences of a ground operation in Lebanon would be very different from those of previous Israeli occupations, and said Turkey would stand by Lebanon and support it with all available means. This has raised hopes that Turkey will consider sending troops, but this is unlikely.

Turkish soldiers are already deployed in Lebanon as part of the UN interim force created in 1978 after Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. The peacekeeping force is intended to provide security and help the Lebanese government rebuild its authority. The force was supposed to create a buffer, but it has now been proven that this is not enough. Furthermore, Israel has not hesitated to target UN personnel in defiance of international law.

However, the Turkish presence within the UN force could deter Israeli military action against them. If Israel escalates its military operations in Lebanon, it could significantly shift the regional balance of power and further complicate the conflict dynamics. It could also attract Syria and Iran. Although Turkey may not be a key player and its direct investments in Lebanon are modest, Ankara officials fear that a war between Israel and Hezbollah could trigger a widespread crisis, harming the country's interests. Turkey in various countries.

If Israel escalates its military operations in Lebanon, it could significantly shift the regional balance of power.

Sinem Cengiz

Fear that further Israeli incursions into Lebanon could have widespread consequences is influencing Ankara's geopolitical strategy. Policymakers are concerned not only about the immediate implications for Lebanon, but also about the risk of a broader conflict that could affect Turkey's interests throughout the region. In this context, by positioning itself as a supporter of Lebanon's sovereignty and stability, Turkey aims to strengthen its regional position and send a meaningful message to other allies of the United States and Israel to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

Ultimately, although Ankara has so far maintained a diplomatic tone, a significant escalation of the Israeli offensive in Lebanon could change the situation. Can Turkey, given its historical responsibilities, help prevent new conflicts in the region simply by maintaining a presence, while guaranteeing the security of its troops and avoiding direct involvement in the war?

Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst specializing in Turkey's relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz

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