Boris Johnson may be considering a comeback

Conservative party conferences tend to provide a good litmus test of conservative thinking. When a Spectator The panel asked the audience at a 2021 fringe event who would be the best successor to Boris Johnson, the clear answer (counted by raised hands) was Liz Truss. A year later, she succeeded.

It is therefore telling that when an audience of similar size to a Spectator Outsiders in Birmingham were asked this week whether they would welcome Johnson's return to Parliament, and the response was cool. An approximate 4 to 1 ratio in the room was against it. In short, Boris-regret has not yet really taken over the conservative party.

Yet despite this, the debate this week within the Conservative Party is once again the same: what will Boris Johnson do next? As the former Prime Minister prepares to take center stage to publish his highly anticipated memoir Unchainedsome wonder if he has anything else on his mind than selling books.

After a period of relative calm, Johnson is back and, apparently, without any restrictions. The highlights that have so far been broadcast in the Email Serializations include his abandoned plan to launch a water raid on a vaccine warehouse in the Netherlands, Donald Trump sending pharmaceutical representatives in an effort to help him recover from Covid and his regrets over the number of homicidal maniacs he has he appointed in his government.

Despite the colorful excerpts, Johnson is already accused by some colleagues of pulling his weight. Although the book reflects his bombastic style, it is not overly introspective. While his feelings of betrayal at the hands of various colleagues, from Rishi Sunak to Michael Gove, are discussed, there is less talk about what perhaps he should have done differently. Johnson doubles down on whether Partygate was a seam affair, calling the stories grossly exaggerated, and stops short of lifting the lid on reported legal fights between his aides and his partner in the final days of his premiership. It seems more like a prospectus for a next chapter than a mea culpa, says one of his former colleagues.

It's no big secret that Johnson believes he still has a long way to go in politics. He only resigned from 10 Downing Street after so many of his MPs had left the government, which could no longer function. Even then, he hinted that a return could be considered in time. In his departure speech, Johnson compared himself to Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus, the Roman statesman, who returned to his plow. The reference has not escaped classically trained commentators. Cincinnatus left Rome only to be called to return and lead again.

So, does Johnson feel it could be time to return from retirement in his own country to SW1? Johnson had always planned to write the book and it's worth pointing out that much of the motivation is likely financial. The book deal as well as the sought-after serialization were likely to be lucrative for the former Prime Minister, who was known to struggle financially while at 10 Downing Street. From pre-orders alone, the book is already in the top five of Amazon's bestsellers this week. His allies have already said he would like to make some money once he gets out, and his accounts and book show he is making good progress in that area.

But there is also clearly an element of say about his legacy and his story often told by others. When Johnson first planned the timing of the release, it was with the idea that the book would be published just as the Conservatives were moving toward what was likely to be a very difficult reckoning with the electorate. The book was designed to coincide with the general election, said a Conservative MP who had previously backed Johnson for party leader. You can see how his arguments would have happened at the time when Rishi was in trouble. But this was diminished by leadership elections and he had to compete with contenders for leadership of the press. Sunak therefore threw Johnson another curveball with his decision to opt for a July election.

As Johnson begins to embark on an advertising blitz in the coming days, he will be able to show whether he can still steal the Conservatives' spotlight and generate the most column inches. He absolutely wants to come back, says a former minister. Currently there are no vacancies but this could change. Others say Johnson is considering speaking out more in part out of concern for the future of the Conservative Party and the country where Labor is now in government.

How could a return take place? Given Labor's current poll numbers and the government's difficulties, MPs are bracing for a series of by-elections between now and the next election and believe the Conservatives may have a better chance than expected. Looking at council by-elections since the 2024 election result, they are one point out of the 55 council by-elections, with Labor down nine and the Conservatives up four.

Thus, Johnson could position himself as a candidate in the by-elections. Would a new leader have the audacity to say no if asked? Then, if the new Conservative leader finds opposition a tough test and MPs start to wonder why they are failing to achieve their goal, Johnson could be where he needed to be. It's not a set route but it's not impossible.

And would Johnson really want that? His book is full of things about the problems of high office.

Yet ultimately, almost all political leaders find it difficult to relinquish power. Look at David Cameron, he left Downing Street and struggled with life as Prime Minister after becoming embroiled in a row over lobbying. Eventually he was happy to return to government in a more junior role, that of Sunak's foreign minister. His allies said it was as much a chance for redemption to rewrite his political obituary.

Even the departed of No. 10 share such sentiments. Tony Blair made a lot of money and still has great influence over the Labor Party. Yet in a recent interview he admitted that sometimes he still wishes he was prime minister: you start with who is the most popular and least competent and you end with who is least popular and most competent . These words will not be lost on Boris Johnson.