Why the US-Taiwan aid package is a signal to China ahead of the election

Aid will be provided through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows for the “rapid delivery of defense articles” from U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) stockpiles “to respond to foreign crises.” The United States is already using this process to send military aid to Ukraine.

China considers Taiwan its territory, which President Xi Jinping has promised to do. one day be “reunited” to the continentusing force if necessary. Beijing has increased pressure on the self-ruled island, for example by flexing its muscles in regular military exercises across the Taiwan Strait.

Although it does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, the United States is Taiwan's greatest security benefactor. China views any military support for Taiwan as a provocation.

The White House said its goal in supporting Taiwan's self-defense was to “continue to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

Taiwan and the new American president

As the US presidential election approaches in November, Chinese pressure on Taiwan is expected to pose a challenge to the new president, whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.

Joseph Bosco, a former Pentagon official responsible for China policy, said DW that “we don’t know exactly how [a new] the administration will deal with Taiwan.

He added that the Biden administration is “so trying to expedite the transfer of resources as much as possible during this time.”

Bosco, who served as country official for China in the U.S. Secretary of Defense's office from 2005 to 2006, said the current administration is confident in the continuation of Harris' China policy, but “he doesn't is not at all clear” which second The Trump administration would do the trick.

What direction would Trump take on Taiwan?

The first Trump administration was hawkish toward China, launching a trade war in an attempt to isolate the Chinese economy. Trump has also increased U.S. security assistance to Taiwan, with $18 billion worth of arms sales reported to Congress during his administration.

However, Trump's “transactional” approach to foreign policy is an ongoing concern for U.S. allies in Asia and elsewhere.

Bosco said the Republican presidential candidate had been “very unsympathetic” in his statements on Taiwan and had become unpredictable about his future Taiwan policy.

“It’s unclear which direction he might go,” he said, adding that he thinks Biden is “hedging his bets” by approving defense aid cuts before the election.

During his 2024 campaign, Trump claimed that Taiwan had taken over the US microchip sector and said Bloomberg in July, Taiwan should “pay the United States for its defense.”

Harris could move away from Biden on Taiwan

If Harris wins the November election, her administration could take a different tone toward Taiwan than Biden, who said in a 2022 television interview that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of an “attack without previous “. The White House then returned to these comments.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program, wrote in a recent analysis that “Harris may not echo Biden's persistent position that he would send U.S. forces to defend Taiwan if China invades Taiwan.” 'island “.

“It may instead choose to return to a more traditional policy of strategic ambiguity,” Glaser wrote.

Bosco said that initially Harris would “pretty much follow Biden's policies.” However, he added that if China begins to “step up pressure on Taiwan and take overt actions towards Taiwan… then we will see how committed it is to Taiwan's security.”

Delays in US defense aid deliveries

Under the US “one China” policy in force since 1979, the United States “reserves the right” to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons.

Under this policy, the United States “recognizes” but does not officially acknowledge Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China, while recognizing the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of the China.

China bristles at any support for Taiwan. China's Foreign Ministry responded to the latest US aid package by accusing the US of “emboldening” Taipei to provoke Beijing and threaten the status quo.

In July 2023, Biden approved a Taiwan PDA for the first time, signing a $345 million package.

However, delivery issues related to the 2023 drawdown were highlighted in a September 2024 report from the DoD Inspector General.

The report reveals that a large percentage of equipment suffered water damage while waiting months at a military base to be shipped.

It said DoD “failed to effectively or efficiently implement accountability and quality controls” and “provided Taiwan with unusable and improperly packaged equipment and munitions.”

Taiwan has also reported delays in the delivery of equipment ordered years ago, including portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and new F-16V fighter jets.

According to the CATO Institute, a US think tank, the overall figure for the backlog in US arms sales to Taiwan remains at $20.5 billion.

Taiwan, a challenge for any administration

Besides technical issues, Bosco, a former Pentagon official, said the political changes could also affect U.S. support for Taiwan.

“At some point other factors come into play: the economy, inflation,” Bosco said. “The American public will decide that it has had enough of spending American resources on these various international conflicts.”

“Much will depend on the leadership the new president shows in convincing the American public that we need to be involved in these crises. This will be a difficult challenge for any new administration,” he added.

Glaser, of the German Marshall Fund, told DW that the latest approval of the PDA “sent a strong signal to Beijing” that the United States is committed to helping Taiwan build its defense capabilities.

However, she downplayed the significance of her endorsement ahead of the election.

“There is strong bipartisan support in the United States for Taiwan and regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, arms transfers to Taiwan will continue,” Glaser said. “I don’t see any particular significance in the timing.”