Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the polls with early voting underway | US elections 2024

More than 1.4 million people have now voted in the presidential election, as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue to crisscross the country in the home stretch of a neck-and-neck campaign.

Their vice presidential picks, JD Vance and Tim Walz, also faced off this week in the only vice presidential debate this cycle. But early polls suggested voters viewed the debate as a draw, with no clear impact on the race.

Harris achieved her highest national average since July, even though the presidential race remains extremely close in battleground states, according to the Guardian poll. Harris is leading in five of seven swing states, according to the Guardian's average of high-quality state polls aggregated by polling analytics platform 538 over the past 10 days. But overall, both candidates continue to have roughly equal chances of winning.

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The Guardian tracker shows Harris with 49.3% of the vote nationally, compared to Trump's 46%. Early voting is already underway and more than 1.4 million Americans had voted as of midday Friday, according to data collected by the University of Florida's Election Lab.

Harris maintains a slight lead, similar to Guardians' analysis last week. But the numbers don't yet reflect the vice presidential debate.

The easiest path to winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency remains to win the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. While Harris leads Trump in the 10-day polling average in all three polls, according to Guardians analysis (Pennsylvania by 1.2 points, Michigan by 0.1 points and Wisconsin by 2.2 points), these advantages do not are not significant enough to say who will win. analysts say.

The race is just as close in the other four battleground states, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

No candidate enjoys a significant lead in states that merit the 270 electoral votes needed to win, Nate Cohn, the New York Times polling analyst, wrote in his weekly newsletter. This is perhaps the clearest reading we've had of the race so far. This was arguably the first quiet week since Vice President Harris took office.

A slight exception might be in Pennsylvania, Cohn wrote. Polls showed Harris leading in the state by about 2 points after the Sept. 10 debate, but now the race there was essentially tied, he wrote.

The Guardians tracker is based on an average of high-quality surveys over the last 10 days, compiled by 538 people. On Friday, the prediction site said the race was essentially a toss-up, with Harris having a 55% chance of winning and Trump having a 55% chance of winning. a 45% chance.

Some of Trump's best polling has been in Arizona, where he leads Harris 48.8% to 48%, according to the Guardians state poll tracking system. Part of that advantage could be linked to his support among Hispanic voters, Cohn wrote.

When Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, he led Latino voters by nearly 25 points. Four high-quality polls released this week showed Harris leading among Hispanic voters by no more than 12 points, Cohn noted. A national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found Harris leading among Hispanic voters between 54 and 40 percent. Biden won 59% of the Hispanic vote in 2020.

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Mr. Trump's strength among Hispanic voters this cycle may seem surprising, but four years ago he made big gains among them across the country, Cohn wrote. And in 2016, he did no worse than Mitt Romney did in 2012, even though his anti-immigration rhetoric created the expectation of a significant backlash. In retrospect, his resilience among Hispanic voters in 2016 seems like a harbinger of things to come.

Hispanic voters are not a monolith and Trump and Biden could target different parts of the population. A Pew analysis found that Biden won 69% to 30% of college-educated Hispanic voters in 2020. But among non-college-educated Hispanics, he won a much narrower 55% to 41%.

A recent poll from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report also found the race essentially tied. But his analysis showed positive signs for Harris.

A majority of voters now believe Harris will win the election, with 46% saying so, compared to 39% for Trump.

This represents an 11-point gain in Harris's favor since August and suggests that Harris has successfully presented herself as a serious candidate, while Trump's attempts to portray her as incapable of doing the job have not been effective, Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor. , two of the site's editors, wrote in an analysis.

There were also encouraging signs for Harris on the economy, according to the Cook Political Report. While Trump continues to dominate among voters who think he is better equipped to manage the economy, voters are also divided on who would be best suited to rein in inflation. In August, Trump had a 48% to 42% advantage on this issue.

The shift could reflect the fact that Harris' message on the economy is reaching voters, Walter and Taylor wrote. It could also suggest that Trump failed to tie Harris to the rising cost of living, they said.

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