Anti-inflationary measures in Türkiye do not go far enough, experts warn

ANKARA: Although Turkish inflation slowed in September, it remains out of control with the government avoiding tough decisions that could help address it, experts told AFP.

Turkey has seen runaway inflation over the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 percent in October 2022 and 75.45 percent in May.

The government says this rate slowed to 49.4 percent in September.

But these figures are disputed by the independent economists group ENAG which estimates that year-on-year inflation rose to 88.6 percent in September. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said Ankara hoped to bring inflation down to 17.6% by the end of 2025 and to single digits by 2026.

And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently praised Turkey's success in launching the process of permanent disinflation.

The difficult times are behind us, he said.

But economists interviewed by AFP believe that the surge in consumer prices in Türkiye has become chronic and is exacerbated by certain government policies.

The current decline is simply due to a base effect. The month-on-month price increase remains high, at 2.97 percent across Turkey and 3.9 percent in Istanbul.

This cannot be called an achievement, said Mehmet Sisman, an economics professor at Istanbul's Marmara University.

Fiscal black holes

Rejecting the conventional economic practice of raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdogan has long championed a policy of lowering rates, citing Islamic precepts that forbid usury. This caused the lira to fall, further fueling inflation.

But after his re-election in May 2023, he gave carte blanche to the Turkish Central Bank to raise its main interest rate from 8.5 to 50% between June 2023 and March 2024.

The central bank rate remained unchanged in September for the sixth consecutive month.

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