America conspires against Chinese annexation of the Indian Ocean

On October 3, 2024, the British government announced that it had reached an agreement to cede full sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago, a group of islands in the southern Indian Ocean, to the government of Mauritius, with the exception of Diego Garcia, over which the United Kingdom will retain control for an initial period of 99 years.

Since the 1970s, the United States has operated a strategic military installation at Diego Garcia, which it leases from the United Kingdom. Although the base will remain in place after the UK and Mauritius sign a treaty on the planned transfer of sovereignty, the development marks a potentially significant change in the political and security context of a crucial US strategic military node in the Indian Ocean. Indeed, the United States now sublets its Diego Garcia facilities, not to the United Kingdom as a sovereign power, but as a Mauritian tenant.

British sovereignty over the Chagos Islands was contested by Mauritius and the former inhabitants of the Chagos Islands who were expelled during the construction of the base. In 2019 and 2021, the International Court of Justice formally supported the Mauritian claim. Both the British and American governments said the new arrangement puts an end to that argument and sets the base's status on an undisputed legal basis for the first time. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told his Mauritian counterpart that this was important to protect the continued operations of the Anglo-American military base. Mauritius, with financial support from the United Kingdom, will now launch a resettlement program for Chagossians on the islands, with the exception of Diego Garcia.

At first glance, this process seems simple; a civilized and managed decolonization exercise that preserves the integrity of a major Western military installation. However, many in the US and UK strongly disagree.

The People's Republic of China aims to replace the United States as the dominant world power. The ruling Chinese Communist Party directs all of its policies toward this goal, from human cyber espionage to political and economic coercion, manipulation of international institutions and rapid military modernization and expansionism.

It views the Pacific and Indian Oceans as a connected strategic space in which China aims to exert ever greater military control. To this end, it is increasing its intervention capacity across the Indian Ocean. For now, its first naval base is in Djibouti, ostensibly for anti-piracy operations. But China can already use ports it has developed in client states like Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan for military purposes.

In this process, the Indian Ocean has become increasingly precarious. As tensions between China and the West increase over Taiwan, it appears to be a hotbed of rivalry between China and the United States. As in the South and East China Seas and even further out in the Pacific, the United States must view the Indian Ocean as a contested space.

Currently, the most important guarantor of maritime control and security in the Indian Ocean is the Indian Navy. But it does not keep pace with the rapid increase in China's naval capabilities, particularly in the area of ​​submarine warfare. China has sold submarines to Pakistan, Bangladesh and Burma and could use their facilities to maintain its own. Without strong cooperative defense policies linking the United States and its key allies, including India and Australia, the West's core interests in the Indian Ocean will be exposed to increasing threats.

Although the White House welcomed the new agreement, other senior US and British politicians, officials and advisers have expressed serious concerns about the potential erosion of Diego Garcia's strategic resilience. Diego Garcia supported U.S. operations in Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan. It is a critical center for monitoring military developments in space. Its role in supporting submarine operations could be crucial in future conflicts.

The time for peaceful globalization and growth is over. China, Russia and their proxies are working to overturn the US-led status quo. Xi Jinping constantly talks about strengthening combat readiness to create changes not seen in a century that will usher in a new era. The perceived weakening of a vital Western position in the strategic maritime space is a gift to our enemies and a worry to our allies. As the adviser to a former British defense minister said, this deal of course benefits China.

Although Mauritius has historical ties with India, in early 2021 it was the first African country to implement a free trade agreement with China, since then bilateral trade has increased rapidly. Thirty years ago, China was already buying so many shark fins caught illegally in Chagossian waters that its once-pristine local coral ecosystem was being seriously damaged. Despite Mauritian assurances, it may not be long before other fishing vessels are able to patrol the seas near Diego Garcia, searching for a far more dangerous harvest of US cyber intelligence.