Trump and Harris are at an impasse: could a surprise in October change the situation?

Reuters

With a month to go before Election Day, the confrontation between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is the electoral equivalent of a bare-knuckle brawl.

The race for the White House still appears deadlocked, both nationally and in battleground states, so victory will be decided by the smallest of margins: every new voter engaged, every undecided voter influenced could help deliver a final blow.

In any very close race, where the electorate is split in half, a difference of one or two percentage points could be decisive, says David Greenberg, a presidential historian at Rutgers University.

While party strategists focus on how to gain that decisive advantage, it could just as easily be an event beyond their control, an unexpected twist, that shakes up the campaign in the final weeks .

It's already been a year of political shockwaves – from one candidate surviving two assassination attempts and being convicted of a crime, to another, President Joe Biden, dropping out of the race in favor of his vice-president. much younger president.

However, when the surprises diminish in October – think Trump's Access Hollywood tape or Hillary Clinton's 2016 emails – there is barely time to recover or regain momentum after a misstep or a cycle of bad news.

This week alone, there have been several new rumblings that could turn into political storms by November 5.

Hélène's political fallout

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North Carolina, devastated by Hurricane Helene, is a must-win state for Trump

The first potential political storm was literal. Hurricane Helen devastated two key electoral battlegrounds last week, Georgia and North Carolina. Due to the intense focus on both states during this presidential race, a humanitarian catastrophe, with already more than 130 deaths, has also become a political issue.

Harris pledged long-term aid to the region during a stop in Georgia earlier this week and visited those affected by the storm in North Carolina on Saturday.

“We’re here for the long haul,” she said in Georgia.

Meanwhile, both states are essentially must-wins for Trump, and polls show deadlock. During his visit to Georgia, the former president claimed Americans were losing emergency relief money because it was spent on migrants. In fact, the two separate programs have separate budgets, and the Biden administration has accused Republicans of spreading “blatant lies” about funding for the disaster response.

In times of disaster, it is not easy for the government to keep everyone happy. If Trump attacks the territory, any voter dissatisfaction with recovery efforts could potentially impact the outcome in two of the most closely watched states in the country.

Climbing in the Middle East

Thousands of miles from the disaster-ravaged American Southeast, a man-made crisis continues to seep into American politics. The war in Gaza risks spilling over into a regional conflagration, as Israeli forces battle Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel earlier this week.

Although Harris presented herself as a candidate for change, she put no distance between herself and the current administration when it comes to U.S.-Israel policy. This carries risks.

Hopes for any pre-election ceasefire in Gaza appear firmly dashed, and the White House is at this point trying to ensure that the inevitable Israeli response to Tuesday's Iranian strike does not lead to all-out war.

Thursday evening, Biden was not really reassuring.

I don't believe there will be an all-out war, he said. I think we can avoid it. But there is still much to do.

The war also has domestic consequences for Democrats, even though American voters generally don't think directly about foreign policy when they vote.

Harris' pledge to continue supplying weapons to Israel is an issue for two key segments of the Democratic base: Arab-Americans in the swing state of Michigan, and young voters on campuses, where anti-protest protests war could resume.

Conflict in the Middle East has also fueled financial concerns. Biden's mention of the possibility of Israel targeting Iranian refineries sent the price of oil soaring more than 5% on Thursday.

If there is one thing that American consumers are particularly sensitive to, it is rising prices at the pump.

Good surprises for Democrats

Overall, public opinion polls continue to show that the economy is the top concern among American voters. And Harris and Democrats received some good news on that front Friday, with the latest jobs numbers showing robust job growth in recent months and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%.

Voters' concerns about the economy aren't limited to the latest jobs numbers, Greenberg said.

When people complain about the economy, what they're really complaining about is the long-term failure in certain parts of the country — the deindustrialized rural communities of the Americas, he says. These are parts of the country that are suffering, even when the economy is good.

For most of the election season, Trump has performed better than Harris when voters are asked who they think would do a better job on the economy, including in a recent CNN poll. But there are signs that his lead may not be set in stone, such as a Cook Political Report survey of swing states that showed the two candidates tied on who would be best suited. to cope with inflation.

A looming economic pitfall for Democrats also evaporated this week: the dockworkers' strike, which briefly closed critical ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico for the first time in 50 years. Both sides agreed to return to the negotiating table in January to reopen the ports. Had the work stoppage continued, it could have disrupted supply chains and driven up consumer prices in the weeks leading up to the election.

Meanwhile, illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border have returned to pre-Covid levels, after reaching a record 249,741 last December.

Although the impact of this border push is still being felt in many American cities, the urgency of the crisis may be diminishing.

Capitol riot resurfaces

While much of this week's news could spell trouble for Harris and the Democrats, it hasn't all been smooth sailing for Trump.

His conduct during the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol was spotlighted again Wednesday, when a federal judge released a document from special counsel Jack Smith outlining his case and evidence against Donald Trump for for attempting to overturn the result of the 2020 election.

The document, which argued the former president should not have presidential immunity from prosecution, contained new details about the words and actions of his supporters that led to the Capitol riot.

A recent CNN poll shows that voters prefer Harris to Trump on issues of protecting democracy by 47% to 40% – so anything that renews attention to the chaotic final weeks of Trump's presidency could be in order. advantage of the Democrats.

Unknown unknowns

The term October surprise has been part of the American political lexicon for nearly 50 years. Campaigns fear unexpected headlines or crises that cause their candidates to deviate from their message and change the trajectory of a race.

Even the smallest ripple in public opinion could save the White House in a year when electoral margins in swing states could only be measured in tens of thousands of votes.

According to Mr. Greenberg, the November election promises to be difficult.

I don't have any nails anymore, he said. I could totally imagine this election going one way or the other with extremely significant consequences depending on this vote, regardless of your loyalties.

North American correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his biweekly newsletter US Election Unspun. UK readers can subscribe here. Those outside the UK can register here.

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