How Harris and Trump are moving their TV advertising ahead of Election Day

CNN-

The campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump made strategic adjustments to the content of their television ads between August and September, according to a CNN analysis of ad tracking data, amid a contentious fight to define the transformed race to the White House.

The focus on key issues including abortion, immigration and crime has shifted, with the Harris campaign moving away from defensive ads emphasizing the vice president's record on law enforcement. law, and the Trump campaign relying on economic appeals, the main issue for voters in this election.

Ad tracking company AdImpact catalogs issues referenced in broadcast TV campaign ads and tracks the amount of money behind those spots. Comparing changes over the past two months illustrates how each campaign is adapting its messaging and shows how much of campaign resources are spent highlighting various issues.

In August, her first full month as a candidate since succeeding Joe Biden as Democratic leader, her campaign spent $24.5 million on crime-referencing ads, nearly half of the roughly $52.4 million spent in total on TV ads. According to AdImpact data, crime ranked as the top issue in Harris' ads that month, as her campaign sought to blunt the Republican Party's harsh criticism of Harris' past as a as attorney general of California and district attorney of San Francisco.

In September, the Harris campaign's spending on crime ads dropped to just $28,000, less than 1 percent of its monthly TV ad spending.

At the same time, the Harris campaign has devoted more ad dollars to the abortion debate, a key issue for many Democratic and independent voters since Roe v. Wade was overturned and severe restrictions on the procedure were adopted in predominantly Republican-led states. In August, the Harris campaign spent $7.8 million on television ads about abortion, about 15 percent of its total spending that month. In September, that total rose to $25 million, and the share doubled to 32 percent, ranking second among issues mentioned in Harris' ad.

Economic themes also dominated Harris campaign advertising in August and September. Tax was among the top issues discussed in Harris campaign ads in both months, accounting for 37% of spending in August and 40% in September.

While outside pro-Trump groups have maintained a focus on immigration and crime in scathing attacks, the Trump campaign itself has made significant changes to its messaging budget over the past two months, emphasizing more and more economic problems.

In August, the Trump campaign spent about $15.5 million on television ads about immigration, or about 41 percent of its monthly broadcast TV spending. By September, that total dropped dramatically to just $10,500, less than 1 percent of the Trump campaign's total television broadcast spending. Crime, often linked to immigration in harsh Trump campaign ads, also fell, from a 41% share in August to a share of less than 1% the following month.

Meanwhile, the campaign devoted even more ad dollars to messages about the economy. In August, inflation was the main theme of the Trump campaign's ads, referenced in about 57% of its television ads; in September, this share increased to 80%. Housing also increased in terms of its share of campaign messages, attracting 77% of its TV broadcast spending in September, up from 20% the previous month.

Advertising from the Harris and Trump campaigns represents only a portion of the total amount of political advertising targeting the presidential race; Super PACs and other outside groups also invest tens of millions of dollars on the airwaves, and their ads feature similar messaging strategies and include similar points of emphasis as presidential campaigns.

As their messaging has evolved, campaigns have developed a consistent set of targeted states for their ads. In the two months since Harris entered the race, seven states have emerged as key battlegrounds and Democrats have outspent Republicans in all of them.

Including spending by campaigns and allied outside groups on television, digital and radio platforms, these seven states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada accounted for nearly $930 million out of a total of more than $1.1 billion spent. on presidential campaign ads between July 22, the day after Biden withdrew from the race, and the end of September.

Pennsylvania appears to be the linchpin for both camps on the path to 270 electoral votes, and the Commonwealth was flooded with more than $250 million in advertising funds between July 22 and September 30. Democrats outspent Republicans in the Keystone State by about $144 million to $105 million during that period. over this stretch, and both sides spent more there than any other battlefield state.

Michigan comes in second, with Democrats once again outspending Republicans by about $115 million, to $71 million. Democratic investments in Pennsylvania and Michigan far exceed their spending in all other battlegrounds, underscoring the importance of blue wall states to the party's electoral strategy.

Georgia ranks third, with about $132 million in advertising since Harris became the nominee. The ad wars in the Peach State have been tighter, with Democrats narrowly outspending Republicans by about $66 million to $65 million.

Together, these three states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, spent approximately $570 million on presidential ad spending between July 22 and September 30, accounting for nearly half (49%) of all such spending during of these two months and more.

Wisconsin and Arizona are the other two states that have seen more than $100 million in combined ad spending since Harris became a candidate, and Democrats have spent more than $10 million on advertising than Republicans in both case. Democrats also outspent Republicans in North Carolina and Nevada, rounding out the top seven battlegrounds.

Another target for excessive ad spending has been deep-red Nebraska, with one electoral vote up for grabs in a state that divides some of its electoral votes by congressional district. Democrats spent more than $8 million on advertising there, while Republicans made a minimal investment of just over $200,000.

Campaigns and outside groups routinely reserve ad time well in advance, and both parties have reserved hundreds of millions of dollars of ad time leading up to Election Day. The numbers will change as more money flows in and spending targets are updated, but starting in October, Democrats were poised to enjoy a significant advantage on the airwaves.

Including ad buys covering the period from Oct. 1 through the election, Democrats have about $344 million in reserved ad time, compared to about $225 million for Republicans. In the seven battleground states, the margin is narrower, but Democrats still have the advantage, between $269 million and $222 million (Democratic advertisers also have more than $50 million in national presidential reserves, contributing thus to their overall advantage).

That dynamic could change quickly, as a handful of extremely wealthy and influential megadonors, many of whom have already given tens of millions of dollars to super PACs fighting on both sides, face no limits on additional donations. And their willingness to put millions more into the race could intensify the ad war.

All of this contributed to what AdImpact predicts will be the most expensive election in U.S. history, totaling $10.2 billion in political ad spending throughout the runoff. According to the firm's projections, that would represent a 13% increase from the previous record of $9.02 billion set during the 2020 campaign.

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