Xi Jinping and Shigeru Ishiba in the showdown for global power

Xi Jinping intends to gain the upper hand in his relations with the new Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba. This is consistent with his view that China occupies a “big place in the East.”

Xi seeks to present himself to his people as Asia's most powerful leader, feared abroad and unchallenged by his rivals at home. He likes to talk about a “new era” in which the balance of power tilts in favor of China.

This has profound implications for Mr. Ishiba and his cabinet. I believe the government must be careful not to appear weak in China's eyes. It would be particularly dangerous to give China the impression that the long-standing alliance between Japan and the United States is under pressure.

Japan has worked diligently to develop friendly relations with many like-minded countries. However, it has only one ally: the United States.

Xi will seize on any hint of trouble between Tokyo and Washington. He will try to use it as a lever to reshape the international order in his own interest.

The new era of Xi

I have been studying Xi Jinping for several years and have noticed that he often refers to the concept of a “new era” (Xn sh).

The expression is also contained in the title of a political book he wrote, The Chinese Dream: Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Every person in China is obliged to read this book. Many passages from this text were incorporated into the constitution of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

In his first official message to Prime Minister Ishiba, Xi said he hoped a “stable China-Japan relationship would meet the demands of the new era.”

This should ring alarm bells in Tokyo.

Although Xi also talked about developing a “comprehensively mutually beneficial relationship,” I'm pretty sure what he really wants is for Japan to allow China to do as it pleases.

Control the Chinese army

Xi Jinping likes to wear a uniform. As chairman of the Central Military Commission, he also presides over strategy. His dream is to create a “world-class” army, which would be completely loyal to him since he sits at the top of the chain of command.

It was on Xi's orders that the Chinese air force recently violated Japanese airspace. He asked the Chinese coast guard to harass Japan around the Senkaku Islands. Xi himself is also the overlord of the Chinese navy which conducts joint exercises with Russia around the Japanese islands.

Teacher Susan L Shirk from the University of California examined Xi's hold over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). She notes that this is even more comprehensive than her grip on the CCP and the government.

“Xi acts as if he is personally responsible for everything. To show how involved he is, Xi has taken the new position of commander-in-chief of the PLA Joint Combat Command. He chairs the National Security Commission. Xi has also taken direct care of internal security, thereby reducing the risks of a coup,” explains Professor Shirk.

Freedom of navigation

Chinese admirals briefed Xi Jinping on recent maneuvers by ships belonging to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). On September 25, the destroyer JS Sazanami sailed through the China-Taiwan Strait as part of a freedom of navigation exercise. It was also supported by the United States and other democratic countries.

China condemned the decision.

JS Sazanami undertook his mission at a time when heated discussions on defense and security were underway in Tokyo. I am glad that Japanese politicians debate politics enthusiastically, expressing a wide range of opinions.

This stands in stark contrast to China, where party members must swear loyalty to Xi. They are asked to avoid any “inappropriate discussion” and not raise questions about central policies set by the senior leader.

Open debate

It is a relief that Japan, as a democracy, is taking a much more open approach to politics. However, I worry about the implications of recent debates. What messages do they send about the direction of Japan-US relations? Is Shigeru Ishiba less committed to this key alliance than his predecessor, Fumio Kishida?

Before becoming Prime Minister, Mr. Ishiba suggested changes to the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Japan and the United States. This agreement forms the basis of the status and rights of the American military in Japan. He described the current agreement as “the world's only asymmetric bilateral treaty.”

Mr. Ishiba also wrote about this in a book. “I believe the Japanese people have procrastinated before thinking deeply about what independence is and what a sovereign state is,” he added.

Protect Japan

Mr. Ishiba's tone has changed since he took over as leader. In an October 4 speech to the Diet, he pledged to protect Japan in a rapidly changing global security environment.

“There is no doubt that we need to fundamentally strengthen Japan's defense capabilities,” he said.

Regarding China, the prime minister further said that it is “strengthening its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East and South China Seas with each passing day.”

He said he was shocked by the recent murder of a Japanese child in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.

His tone was patriotic, firm and knowledgeable. However, foreign policy will not be a priority for Mr Ishiba before the Lower House elections at the end of October. He stressed the urgent need to focus on domestic issues. Ishiba is also struggling to regain public trust in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Meeting with Premier Li

Despite the looming elections and a busy national schedule, Mr. Ishiba decided to travel to Laos on October 10 and 11 to meet with ASEAN leaders.

This could lead to a meeting with the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Qiang. Such a summit would give Ishiba the opportunity to fulfill his promise to demand “responsible action” from Beijing.

In preparing for the ASEAN Leaders' Conference in Laos, Mr. Ishiba may also wish to reflect on the US position on China and Asia. Naturally, this topic is the subject of debate as the US presidential election approaches.

The Biden administration has identified China as the United States' only major competitor, with “intent on reshaping the international order and the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do so.”

Prime Minister Ishiba has already been briefed on the situation in China by the US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel. The two men met in Tokyo on October 3. Ambassador Emanuel expressed hope that their countries will further strengthen their alliance and cooperation.

In my view, this alliance is well suited to fulfill Xi Jinping's vision of a “new era” dominated by China. The cooperation helps counter Xi's power and does not undermine Japan's sovereignty or independence.

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Author: Duncan Bartlett, diplomatic correspondent

Mr. Bartlett is a diplomatic correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a research associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.