Harris versus Trump: who leads in presidential polls

Your support helps us tell the storyLearn moreClose

As a White House correspondent, I ask the tough questions and seek the answers that matter.

Your support allows me to be in the room and push for transparency and accountability. Without your contributions, we would not have the resources to challenge those in power.

Your donation allows us to continue doing this important work, keeping you informed every step of the way toward the November election.

Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

Vice President Kamala Harris will face Donald Trump in less than a month as Americans vote in the 2024 election.

With just weeks to go, Trump could be losing his grip on older generations of voters, with the latest New York Times polls showing the two candidates separated by a hairline; and Harris ahead by 3 points.

Furthermore, the presidential race in Florida experienced a tumultuous electoral period. While several polls show Trump's lead shrinking with Harris just 2 points behind, the latest New York Times poll reversed expectations, once again putting Trump a mile ahead.

So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

The latest national polling average, compiled by FiveThirtyEight, gives Harris a 2.6 point lead over Trump. On average, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks.

The latest New York Times/Siena College polls have Harris ahead by 3 points, at 49 percent, and Trump at 46 percent.

Harris' largest support group remains young voters and those from non-white backgrounds. Meanwhile, Trump's key base is white, non-college voters.

Meanwhile, much to the dismay of the Trump campaign, the poll suggests that older generations of voters are no longer staunchly Republican.

For both Gen

In fact, the two candidates are effectively tied among the two groups; since Trump only has a lead of 1 and 2 points, within the margin of error of +-2.4.

Although it remains to be seen how this might change down the stretch, the Republican Party has won the over-65s in every election since 2000.

The gender divide between Trump and Harris voters remains strong, with women leaning left and men right.

Both candidates promise change, but Trump has generally been more successful in developing that reputation than Harris.

Yet this poll also shows that Harris is now more likely to represent change (46%) than Trump (44%).

Unstable polls in Florida

Polling in Florida has seen renewed interest in recent weeks, with Harris appearing to encroach on Trump's lead in her home state.

In particular, figures from the historically Republican polling firm RMG Research show that Trump received 50% of the vote and Harris 48% in Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago and several key Republicans.

However, this morning, New York Times polls show Trump ahead by +13 points in the Sunshine State, at 55 percent to Harris's 41 percent.

Although this does not match several recent polls in the state, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn suggests this poll is not an exception: Mr. Trump [excels] in states where Republicans performed well in the 2022 midterm elections, as they did in Florida. Therefore, this survey is not a usual exception.

If Florida becomes more solidly Republican in 2024, it suggests that the upheavals during and after the pandemic have had a lasting effect on American politics.

Vance wins vice presidential debate, gains popularity

Last week's debate between Ohio Senator Vance and Minnesota Governor Walz upended expectations; Betting markets and pre-polls see Walzas as the presumptive winner.

Not only did Vance win the debate, but his performance seemed to have done wonders for his public perception, which had been suffering for months.

Our pre-debate analysis found that Walz was ahead of Trump, Vance and even Harris in favorability.

Vance received a +11 point increase in favorability from last week's debate, according to the latest YouGov poll.

This leaves Vance in a neutral position, while voters had an 11 percent unfavorable opinion of him overall before the debate.

Even more interesting, Vance improved his popularity by an astonishing +19 points among Democrats. Although, overall, it still has a net negative score of 52 percent among this group.

Walz also received a more modest 3-point increase, reaching 15 percent favorability in the YouGovs poll.

Although Walz's performance was not a winning one in the debate, he remained the most favored candidate, and he even improved his popularity among independent voters after the debate.

Within his own party, however, he lost the approval of 7 percent of voters, nonetheless ending up in a net positive 72 percent favoring the Democrats.

Snap polls following the debate showed viewers were divided on the two candidates and that Vance came in with a few points lead.

A CBS/YouGov poll found that 42 percent of viewers considered Vance the winner of the debate, compared to 41 percent for Walz.

However, Walz emerged as more in touch with the average American and more likely to share voters' vision for America.

For the full analysis of the post-debate poll, click here.

Key questions for voters

Regardless of political affiliation, the economy is the most important issue influencing how people will vote in this election.

A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 2,500 U.S. adults conducted through Sept. 26 shows that abortion is considered the second most important issue, with 37 percent of voters, followed by immigration with 34 percent.

For Trump voters, however, these priorities are reversed.

More than half (57%) of Trump voters consider immigration one of the most important issues, amid tensions over border security and recently debunked claims by Trump and Republicans about Haitian migrants.

Interestingly, health care and abortion came in as the second most important issues to Trump voters, at 23% each.

Although Trump has advocated for an overhaul of Obamacare, with failed attempts during his presidency, he was unable to present an alternative health policy during the September presidential debate.

Meanwhile, abortion is top of mind for Harris voters (55 percent), with Harris herself criticizing the abortion ban, following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40%), followed by housing (23%).

Battlefield States

Recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls in swing states give Harris a +3 point lead on average, ranging from a tie with Trump to a +7 point lead.

The poll was conducted among more than 6,000 registered voters in swing states September 19-25, with margins of error ranging from 1 to 4 percent in each state.

In Pennsylvania, which hosted the first Harris-Trump presidential debate, Harris saw her lead increase from +4 points to +5 points since August.

The state previously leaned toward Trump when President Joe Biden was on the Democratic ticket.

Harris has the largest lead of 7 points over Trump in Nevada, with 52 percent of the vote to 45 percent.

In Georgia, the two candidates are tied at 49 percent each, while Harris' five-point lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to three points ahead of Trump.

Harris also has a 3-point lead in Michigan and Arizona and a 2-point lead in North Carolina.

Although the economy remains the top issue for swing-state voters, the perceived skills gap is narrowing: 45% of swing-state voters think Harris can handle the economy better, slightly behind Trump at 49%.

Who will vote?

A YouGov/Economist poll has Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent, and Trump at 44 percent. The poll shows a wide margin of 25 points for Harris among young voters aged 29 and younger.

However, according to the same poll, younger generations are also the least committed to voting, with 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed saying they may vote, while 3 percent will not vote or are still unsure.

This represents 16 percent of those who are hesitant or not voting, higher than any other age group and above the average of 9 percent. Only 65 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed said they would definitely vote in November.

This compares to 77 percent of those aged 30 to 44, 85 percent of those aged 45 to 64 and 94 percent of those aged 65 and over.

Even if the figures may seem gloomy and reflect a certain degree of hesitation among young voters, the overall picture is significantly more engaged than in 2020.

The same YouGov/Economist poll at this point in the 2020 presidential election showed that almost a third of young people (27%) were not determined to vote in November, 10% might vote and 17% would not vote. definitely/probably didn’t vote.

Arizona: the key issues

In Arizona, a historically Republican state that has 11 Electoral College votes and flipped for Biden in 2020, polls have shown inconsistent leads for Harris and Trump.

The Trump campaign made frequent stops in the state over the summer.

In a state bordering Mexico, one in five (19%) voters in Arizona say immigration is the most important issue affecting their vote, according to the same poll.

This is the second issue after the economy, which is the number one issue affecting voters statewide and nationwide.

A majority (51%) of Arizona voters believe Trump is better equipped to handle key issues, which has reversed since August, when Harris had slightly more confidence.

This indicates that, despite the general enthusiasm for Harris' debate performance, Arizona voters may favor Trump and his approach to key issues. Since this is a generally Republican state, this is not surprising.

Make sense of the US elections with experts from The Independents in our exclusive virtual event Harris v Trump: Who will make history? Reserve your place here.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/harris-trump-polls-tracker-election-campaign-latest-b2626643.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos