Donald Trump's chances of winning the election increase with bookmakers

The odds of Donald Trump winning the November presidential election have improved significantly with a number of leading bookmakers over the past week seeing the release of new polls placing the Republican candidate ahead in states across the Michigan and Wisconsin.

On October 2, Sky Bet, William Hill, 888.sport and Unibet all offered odds of 10/11 (52.4%) on a Trump victory in November. However, as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sky Bet, William Hill and 888.sport all had odds of 4/5 (55.6%) on a Trump victory, while Unibet offered 3/4 (57.1 %).

Trump's improving chances are just the latest indication that the former president has gained momentum in recent weeks as the dueling campaigns have continued to clash over issues such as immigration , abortion and the defense of American democracy.

The election analysis released Wednesday by polling site FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 53 percent chance of winning in November, a substantial drop from a similar study conducted Sept. 18 that gave her a 64 percent chance.

Wednesday also saw the release of a Quinnipiac University survey showing Trump leading in the critical states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which President Joe Biden won in 2020.

In Michigan, Trump led by 3 points with 50 percent to Harris's 47 percent, while in Wisconsin he enjoyed a 2-point lead with 48 percent to 46 percent. For the survey, 1,007 likely voters were surveyed in Michigan and 1,073 in Wisconsin from October 3-7, with both polls having a margin of error of 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. .

Quinnipiac University also surveyed 1,412 likely voters in Pennsylvania – a hotly contested swing state that Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020 – from October 3-7. That poll gave Harris a 3 percentage point lead with 49 percent of the vote to 46 percent and had a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris 2024 campaigns for comment via email outside of normal business hours on Thursday.

Donald Trump speaking at a campaign rally on October 9, 2024 in Reading, Pennsylvania. Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have improved significantly over the past 24 hours, according to major bookmakers. Donald Trump speaking at a campaign rally on October 9, 2024 in Reading, Pennsylvania. Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have improved significantly over the past 24 hours, according to major bookmakers. Alex Wong/GETTY

Separately, an ActiVote poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted between October 3 and 8 gave Trump a 1.2 point lead nationally over Harris, with 50.6% of the vote to 49.4%. with a margin of error of 3.1 points. This stands in stark contrast to the previous ActiVote poll, conducted September 11-17, which placed Trump with 47.3 percent, 5.4 points behind Harris with 42.7 percent.

Through the Electoral College system, Harris could win the popular vote in November but lose the election overall, as Hillary Clinton did to Trump in 2016.

Another blow for Harris: an Oct. 8 YouGov poll found that 42 percent of respondents thought Trump would be best positioned to deal with a natural disaster if elected president in November, compared with 40 percent. current vice-president.

This comes as Florida was hit by Hurricane Milton and just two weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated a number of southern states, leaving at least 230 people dead.

A review this month of publicly available data showed that the Harris campaign spent $54.7 million with Meta, Facebook and Instagram's parent company, over the past three months, placing a total of 36,805 advertisements. This put them significantly ahead of the Trump campaign which spent $6 million with Meta during the same period.

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