Hope returns to Kashmir after elections, but ultimate power still lies with Narendra Modis government

This year, local elections in India's northernmost territory, Jammu and Kashmir, were the First of all since the national government controversially stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status in 2019. It is also the first local election in Muslim-majority Kashmir since 2014.

It was an important moment for the region. The elections will restore, at least partially, certain degree of autonomy five years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew it.

Modis Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved resounding success defeat when the official results were released this week. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the Congress alliance won 48 seats out of the 90 seats in the regional legislature. The BJP won 29, mostly in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

Former chief minister Omar Abdullah was also reinstated as a leader. It's a surprising turn given that he lost his race for a seat in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament, in the national elections a few months ago.

What has changed?

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have been affected in the past by boycotts and low voter turnout, largely due to public distrust of the government.

There was also a sense of betrayal after the Modis government revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. This had granted special privileges to local residents and given the region its own constitution and the ability to make its own laws.

However, the voter turn out this year the elections reached 64%. And the participation of separatists and independent candidates suggested a change of attitude towards the political process.

For the BJP, the elections are proof that normalcy has returned to Kashmir after years of continuous violence. Modi said in a tweet: Many people have claimed that Jammu and Kashmir will burn if Article 370 is repealed. However, it didn't burn, it bloomed.

Modi had promised during the campaign statehood would be restored, although he suggested this would only come about if the BJP was victorious.

With Modis' opposition winning, some believed the election was a a de facto referendum in territories with special status.

The JKNC has always opposed the revocation of Article 370 and removal of Kashmir's autonomy. The party promised to work to restore this special status, as well as to repeal the draconian measures Public Safety Actwhich allows the detention of people for up to two years without charge, and calls for amnesty for prisoners.

In reality, however, the result will not reverse the revocation of Article 370. The new local assembly will have the power to legislate and amend laws, debate local issues and approve decisions for the territory, including in the fields of education and culture. But Abdullah will still have to seek approval from federally appointed lieutenant governors for any major decisions.

Although many Kashmiris want to prevent the BJP from expanding its influence in the region, the party still retains some control from New Delhi.

The BJP has expanded the powers of lieutenant governors on public order and the maintenance of order. The lieutenant governor also control on the regional anti-corruption office and the Directorate of Criminal Prosecutions.

These powers have been strongly criticized by opposition parties in the region.

The future of democracy?

In recent years, Indian security forces have cracked down news media, social networks and other forms of communication throughout the region, especially any form of Kashmiri solidarity with Palestine.

Human rights defenders say Abuses and repression continue in the region and the climate of fear has had a detrimental impact on life in Kashmir.

Statehood remains one of the greatest grievances for residents of Kashmir. Abdullah said itself as the restoration of a complete and undiluted State for [Jammu and Kashmir] is a prerequisite for these elections.

Only time will tell if these demands can be met, but there is hope that a new local government can begin to change the grim situation in Kashmir.

As I talked about in a recent podcastthere is optimism that the new government will go a long way toward restoring some level of autonomy to Kashmir, provided it is not hampered by the lieutenant governors' new powers.