The probability of a return of Boris Johnson

There has been plenty of drama in Westminster this week with Keir Starmer shuffling his No 10 team and the Conservatives playing into the party leadership race. But outside Parliament, the other big story in domestic politics was the return of Boris Johnson.

The former prime minister embarked on an advertising campaign to promote his memoirs Unchained (as reviewed by Michael Gove in this week's magazine). Johnson has given several interviews in his quest for book sales. The main lines so far include his regret over apologizing for Partygate and his defense of his decision to give his aide Charlotte Owen a peerage (thus making her the youngest member of the House of Lords). Johnson also attacked Keir Starmer and his penchant for giving gifts, accusing him of appearing greedy.

There is a hypothetical path to a return if he wants it

But the big question among Tory MPs is whether Johnson simply wants to spread his side of the story (and make money in the process) or whether this is part of a wider effort to return to the political fold. In his farewell speech following his resignation as prime minister, Johnson compared himself to Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus, the Roman statesman, who returned to his plow only to be called upon to return and lead at new. Since then, Johnson has suggested that his chances of becoming Conservative leader again are as good as being blinded by a champagne cork or decapitated by a frisbee. Asked on Times Radio if he had any ambition to return to frontline politics, Johnson replied: The real answer is what Her Majesty the Queen said, and I can say that without breaking the Confidence: You should only do things if you think you can be helpful. .

It's not a resounding no. Instead, it raises the question of when it might be useful for Johnson to return. At present, there is little appetite in the Conservative Party for a Johnson return. The party is in the second half of its leadership race to replace Sunak and the focus is on Johnson's return. As one MP told me earlier this month: The book was designed to coincide with the general election. You can see how his arguments would have happened at the time when Rishi was in trouble. But this was diminished by leadership elections and he had to compete with contenders for leadership of the press. When The spectator organized a fringe event at the Conservative Party conference, Fraser Nelson, now deputy editor, asked attendees to raise their hands if they wanted Johnson to return to parliament: only a small proportion of the room did do.

But things can change and there is a hypothetical path to a return if he wants it. All leadership candidates suggested that local associations should have more control and a say in choosing candidates. This means Johnson could find a way to return to Parliament in a by-election. Based on current polls, Labor may find by-elections tricky, even in their first year. Then, if Johnson were in the House of Commons, it would be a waiting game.

Now that the leadership race is down to two MPs, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, the next few years are seen as a rather high risk for the party. Both candidates are on the right with strong opinions that could divide it.

Ultimately, MPs decided it was best to change and send a clear message rather than opt for one of the other candidates more associated with the status quo. But it's also a gamble, and already some party members are wondering whether they will end up changing leaders again before the legislative elections. This is one of the reasons why a change to the censorship rules is being discussed: to make it more difficult for MPs to remove their leader. If Badenoch or Jenrick struggle to win or regain the Reform vote, this could be the moment when Johnson and his party decide that his return might be useful. It's long but it's not impossible.