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Opinion: Much of the world is terrified of Trump 2.0. Here's why

Opinion: Much of the world is terrified of Trump 2.0. Here's why

 


Words matter. Especially when uttered by a president, and especially abroad. Speak softly and carry a big stick, Theodore Roosevelt advised, even though he never imagined that a successor would prove capable of wiping out cities halfway around the world in less than half an hour. This nuclear stick is indeed quite big, capable since 1945 of keeping our most virulent adversaries, including Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang, from their most reckless ambitions. This also helps keep allies in line. What do Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany and South Korea have in common? Everyone is just a day away from joining the nuclear club. On that day, their leaders will stop believing that the President of the United States will come to their aid.

This is why I fear a second Trump term. A world increasingly riven by new great-power rivalries and historic animosities is further weakened by the instability of the Oval Office, illustrated by ill-advised remarks, ill-timed threats and outright lies. The calm captains of the ship of state struggle to navigate the waves and shoals of the world system. An irregular message won't help. Especially one whose obsessions, personal grievances, and loose relationship with the truth cause others to question not only American politics but, more fundamentally, our trustworthiness.

How banal. The professor in the ivory tower reminds us that words retain meaning. How very 20th century. Doesn't he realize that legions of robots and ChatGPT allow today's policy makers to forge the algorithmic reality they desire?

Presidents must be held to higher standards. Their jokes move the markets. Their words invite or repel aggression. Save or end lives. Examples abound of even experienced leaders forgetting rhetorical significance.

Dwight Eisenhower's promise of aid in 1956 inspired Hungarians to revolt against Soviet control, leading most to death or exile. Ike never thought they would take him literally. He spoke of moral and rhetorical help, thoughts and prayers. The Hungarian freedom fighters expected weapons, or better yet, the arrival of American troops, something Eisenhower never wanted to imply. Desperate people heard what they wanted to hear while the man in the Oval Office was unclear.

Words also mattered at the end of the Cold War. Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an evil empire, contrary to directives from his own State Department, which also tried to prevent him from telling Mr. Gorbachev to tear down that wall, lest a Such a direct challenge does not irritate the Kremlin. But that was precisely Reagan's point of view. Another word for anger is catalyze, which is what Reagan hoped to do in the face of rumblings of change behind the Iron Curtain.

George HW Bush also understood the power of presidential proclamations and so remained largely silent when the Berlin Wall finally fell in 1989. I guess I'm just not a horny guy, he told CBS reporter Leslie Stahl and to an equally perplexed White House press corps stunned by his speech. laconic response. But Bush knew that presidential triumphalism, at this precarious moment, could trigger a harsh response. I'm not going to dance on the wall, he said privately, renouncing personal political gain to preserve America's triumph in the Cold War.

Presidents are supposed to care more about the fate of the nation than their own. Barack Obama's reputation suffered when he refused to support his own red line against Syria's use of chemical weapons in 2013, but he ultimately deemed his pledge to avoid a new Middle East quagmire mattered more than his own temporary loss of prestige. Joe Biden's decision to follow through on his promise to end a generation's fight in Afghanistan showed consistency, even when retaliation for evacuation losses could have helped him in the polls. Better to err on the side of caution, he thought, than to rashly reverse a well-considered decision in the hope of temporarily saving face.

This is why the prospect of a second Trump presidency is so terrifying: his ill-considered words resonate. He was the first president since Harry Truman, the only president ever, to question our commitment to defending our NATO allies. Does that mean you won't protect us, in case if we don't pay, you won't protect us from Russia, Trump bragged while lamenting a foreign leader. I said: that's exactly what it means.

It may have been more bluster than extortion, a negotiating tactic aimed at encouraging stingier allies to increase their defense spending. Either way, the story has become standard repertoire at Trump rallies. Meanwhile, our allies move closer to creating their own security guarantees every time Trump makes another dent in the armor of collective security. Including their own nuclear deterrent.

Treaties and promises are ultimately just pieces of paper. They only matter if leaders are trusted to follow through. After a decade of undermining Washington's commitment to NATO, including four years as president, Trump has no reservoir of reliability among our partners, at least those who remain outside the grip of their own strong men. During a second Trump presidency, our most important allies would be certain to promote their own security arrangements without U.S. participation and therefore without their contribution. After all, would you buy a second car from a dealership that threatens to disregard the warranty on the first?

Trump’s prevarication underlines his unreliability. He will say whatever comes to mind, or whatever he thinks will help him win, regardless of truth or collateral damage. A presidential candidate willing to lie about immigrants, FEMA, military leaders, or the predicted path of hurricanes cannot be trusted to tell the truth about future crises. Worse still, his tendency to double down rather than admit his mistakes. Whether Trump putting America first means risking the well-being of Ohio schoolchildren, continuing to spread the big lie that he won the last election, or redefining the storming of the Capitol on January 6 as pure patriotism rather than partisan violence, why would our foreign friends trust his judgment?

Trump's lies are unparalleled in presidential history. Franklin Roosevelt promised that Americans would build 50,000 planes a year to fight Nazi aggression. When asked where he got that big, round number, Roosevelt said he made it up, noting that defeating fascism required Americans to think in broader terms than ever before. Abraham Lincoln also lied, telling newspaper readers in 1862 that he was not considering emancipating the Confederacy's slaves when he had already decided to do so. Even the greatest lie sometimes, although for national rather than personal gain. Trump is lying to himself.

International politics is not best supervised by saints or sophists. We are forced to trust the person we entrust with our security to use their words wisely. But Donald Trump rejects what Ike learned, Reagan deployed, Bush held back, and Obama realized: The big stick of American power demands speaking not softly but reliably.

FDR and Lincoln knew when they were lying. Is Trump? The world should fear another four years of wondering if it can make a difference.

Jeffrey A. Engel is the founding director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. He is working on his 15th book, Seeking Monsters to Destroy: How Americans Go to War from George Washington to Today.

Sources

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2/ https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-10-11/donald-trump-national-seurity-nuclear-weapons

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