Ashgabat Forum highlights Russia, Iran's strategic gains over Turkey's regional ambitions

THE international forum underway in Ashgabatthe capital of Turkmenistan, has attracted attention not only for its importance in the cultural and diplomatic fields, but also for the highly publicized meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

It was the first meeting between the two leaders since Pezeshkian assumed Iran's nominal presidency, making headlines around the world. However, the central narrative emerging from the event is the evident success of Russia and Iran in thwarting Turkey's geopolitical ambitions, particularly in the Turkic world.

Originally intended as an informal meeting of Organization of Turkish States (OTS)the Ashgabat forum was to show the full integration of Turkmenistan into the organization. This decision was anticipated after Gurbanaguly Berdimuhamedow, parliamentary leader of Turkmenistan and de facto head of state, signaled his country's intention to join the OTS at the group's summit in Ankara earlier this year.

However, contrary to expectations, the forum did not take the form of an OTS meeting. Instead, the event was transformed into a broader international event without an official announcement regarding Turkmenistan's membership in the Turkish bloc.

Additionally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan, who was expected to play a leading role, did not attend the event. This absence raised questions about the future of Turkey's leadership in the Turkish world, as the forum saw the participation of prominent leaders such as Putin and Pezeshkian, as well as other heads of state from Central Asia and of Pakistan.

The growing influence of Russia and Iran

Although they are not Turkish countries, the presence of Russia and Iran in Ashgabat dominated the forum, reflecting a significant shift in the region's political dynamics. Russia, with its own Turkish minority, has long positioned itself as a key player in Eurasia.

However, it is Putin's broader vision of a new world order that has captured the attention. Putin's presence at the forum, quickly refocused to commemorate the 300th anniversary of Turkmen poet and philosopher Magtymguly Pyragyfurther highlighted Russia's influence in reshaping the regional agenda.

The meeting between Putin and Pezeshkian was a clear demonstration of their alliance, which seeks to challenge both Western and regional powers. Their discussions likely focused on ongoing conflicts, including Russia's war in Ukraine and Iran's involvement in the Middle East conflict. The Iranian president notably called for more active Russian participation in the Middle East, thus strengthening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran.

Turkey's Declining Influence

Erdoan's absence from Ashgabat is seen by many as a symbol of Turkey's diminishing influence in Central Asia, a region it has historically sought to rule through the concept of a “Turkish world.” . This vision, championed by Turkish leaders starting in the 1990s, aimed to forge closer political, economic and cultural ties between Turkic-speaking nations. However, the Ashgabat forum, initially intended to strengthen Turkey's leadership within this group, instead highlighted the growing dominance of Russia and Iran.

The forum's agenda, reconfigured to exclude any formal discussion of Turkish statehood, highlighted Turkey's abandonment of ambitions. Central Asian leaders, including those of OTS member states, held bilateral meetings with Putin and Pezeshkian, emphasizing their engagement with powers outside the Turkish sphere. The presence of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has further complicated Turkey's position, as Islamabad, like Tehran, does not share Turkish heritage, but remains a key regional player.

China's influence behind the scenes

While the discussions take place in Ashgabat, the presence of another major player is looming: China. Although Chinese officials did not attend the forum, Beijing's influence is felt throughout the discussions. China, which has long sought to increase its presence in Central Asia, stands to benefit from Turkey's declining influence. As a major buyer of Iranian oil and an important partner of Russia, China is seen as the real beneficiary of the geopolitical realignment presented at the forum.

Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has gradually expanded its economic and political influence in Central Asia, thereby putting aside the Turkish vision of a Turkish world. Russia and Iran's growing dependence on China further consolidates Beijing's position in the region, especially as Moscow and Tehran face increasing isolation from the West.

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