Here's Who's Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls

Top line

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains seemingly deadlocked less than four weeks before the election, according to a series of surveys this month, with three new polls showing Harris tied with Trump or maintaining a narrow lead.

Vice President Kamala Harris listens as her husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, speaks before… [+] Plant a pomegranate tree at the Vice President's Residence at the U.S. Naval Observatory October 7, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Getty Images Key Facts

Trump and Harris are tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Sunday, while ABC and Ipsos give Harris a two-point edge (50%-48%) among likely voters, by a margin by 2.5 points in the ABC polls. of error, a change after ABC and NBC showed Harris ahead by about five points last month.

A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday showed Harris leading Trump 51 to 48 percent, with the lead of likely voters slightly tighter than Harris' lead of 52 to 48 percent last month, while Harris had a narrower advantage of 50 to 49 percent in the seven battleground states.

Other polls give the vice president a larger advantage, although the race has tightened in recent weeks: Harris is up four points over Trump, 49% to 45%, in an Economist/YouGov poll of of likely voters released Wednesday, after leading by five points (49% to 46%) in the group's September 30 survey.

The vice president leads Trump 46 to 43 percent in a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday, after leading him by six points in a September 20-23 Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Harris is up 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll released Tuesday, the first time she has led Trump in the group's poll since July.

Harris leads by five points in the weekly Morning Consults poll, also released Tuesday, matching her position in last week's Morning Consult survey.

Harris led in three polls last week: 50% to 48% in an Emerson poll released Oct. 3, 49% to 44%, in a Susquehanna poll Oct. 2, and by three points in an Economist/YouGov poll released in october. 2, margins equal to those of the previous Economist/YouGovs poll carried out from September 21 to 24.

Three other polls over the past month – a Quinnipiac survey released on September 24, a New York Times/Siena poll released on September 19, and a CNN/SSRS poll released on September 24 – showed Trump and Harris tied, while that virtually every other poll had Harris in the lead.

Harris has erased Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her advantage has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the average weighted by FiveThirtyEights surveys.

Who is the favorite to win the election, Harris or Trump?

Harris is favored 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Trump, according to election forecasts from FiveThirtyEights. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Harris' odds at 52.2/47.6, writing that he has never seen an election in which the forecast was longer around 50/50.

Large number

1.8. That's the number of points by which Harris leads Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEights average shows Harris with a 2.5-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up three points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Fare Against Trump in Swing States?

Most surveys show Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEights polling averages, but all seven Swing states are in the single digits.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they didn't know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but it remains significantly lower than previous leads by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and by 50 points in the 2016 poll. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

What is the impact of the debate on the polls?

Pre-debate surveys found that Harris' rising poll numbers appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters conducted September 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, in down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to have a significant impact on the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released September 19 found that the majority of voters in every demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris' September 10 debate performance, with 67 percent saying that she had done well, compared to 40% who said the same thing. about Trump. Harris was up 52 to 46 percent among likely voters and 51 to 47 percent among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her lead of six points among likely voters. in late August and early August, according to ABC/Ipsos surveys, even though 63 percent of Americans said Harris won last week's debate.

Key context

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced her intention to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her formal nomination in a virtual call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his choice for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris' rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today. today, while Republican enthusiasm remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released August 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate, but it didn't largely change voters' minds (Forbes)

Trump's lead over Biden and Harris jumped after RNC, HarrisX/Forbes poll shows (Forbes)

Here's how Kamala Harris is doing in the polls against Trump as Biden drops out and endorses Harris (Forbes)

Harris leads over Trump unchanged after DNC, according to first poll (Forbes)

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/13/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos