How Vladimir Putin outwitted three American presidents

At a private fundraiser in New York in October 2022, President Biden issued an ominous warning about the prospect of nuclear Armageddon.

We have a guy I know pretty well, his name is Vladimir Putin, Biden told the crowd, according to Bob Woodward's new book, “War” (Simon & Schuster, out now). I spent quite a bit of time with him. He is not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical and nuclear weapons.

Their biggest challenge, Biden said, was understanding what the Russian leader is thinking. Stuck in the war in Ukraine that seemed increasingly unwinnable, Biden asked: What is Putin's way out?

Vladimir Putin, Russia's president since 2012, has long left politicians around the world in limbo. Is he the greatest threat to world peace in modern times, or an unjustly vilified Russian patriot? CIA Director William Burns told Woodward that Putin is widely seen among world leaders as a master manipulator. And nowhere is this more evident than in his dealings with American presidents.

Biden, who told Putin after meeting him in 2011 that I don't think you have a soul, Putin responded with a smile and the chilling phrase: “We understand each other” was consistent in his views. Putin is bad, Biden told Oval Office advisers, according to Woodward. We are dealing with the quintessence of evil.

Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, had more admiring remarks about the Russian autocrat. He called Putin a “very wise guy” and described Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a “brilliant” move.

Putin respects me, Trump told Woodward. And I respect Putin.

Putin's most effective tactic against any rival politician, Woodward writes, is a carefully calibrated charm offensive. He has successfully exploited and outmaneuvered presidents by giving them (or at least appearing to give them) what they want.

For Biden, it is the illusion of diplomatic relations. In his many face-to-face meetings with the current president, Putin struck many of the right tones, all kinds of things Biden wanted to hear, Woodward writes. He was gentle, relaxed, expressed himself clearly and conveyed an astonishing self-confidence.

State Department spokesman Ned Price told Woodward that Putin has given the impression that the Russians may be seeking to do what we are seeking to do. Build a stable and predictable relationship.

With Trump, Putin used a different approach: flattery.

He said very good things about me, Trump told Woodward. He said: Trump is brilliant, and Trump is going to be the new leader and all that. And some of these clowns said: you should repudiate Putin. I said: Why should I put him away?

Although Putin appeared to call Trump brilliant during a press conference in Moscow in 2015, the exact meaning may have been lost in translation. The real Russian word was colorful, Burns told Woodward. It's not exactly the same kind of compliment.

Whatever Putin's true meaning, the effect was exactly what he hoped for. Putin played with Trump's ego, writes Woodward. And when Trump was asked about Russian interference in the 2016 election, Putin was rewarded with one of the most extraordinary statements from an American president.

He just said it's not Russia, Trump said at a joint news conference with Putin. I see no reason why this would be the case.

Putin was equally devious when dealing with Biden. During a meeting between Biden and Putin in the summer of 2021, Putin avoided questions about Ukraine (an unprecedented 110,000 Russian troops were at the border) and instead focused on the chaotic withdrawal of Biden from Afghanistan.

Why did you leave Afghanistan? Putin asked Biden to try to throw him off balance, Woodward writes.

It was a strategic move, an attempt to highlight something that Putin saw as a weakness. It also suggested, at least to Putin, that Biden would not know what to do when Putin invaded, Woodward writes.

Putin has been equally calculated toward other world leaders, whether it's publicly humiliating them orin 2007he paraded his large black Labrador in front of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has a phobia of dogs or tricked them into telling Putin exactly what he wanted to hear. In a 2022 phone call with Boris Johnson, who attempted to dissuade Putin from launching a war with Ukraine, Putin got the British prime minister to admit that Ukraine would not join NATO in the foreseeable future.

Johnson later admitted that Putin had set a trap for us. Johnson could not say this publicly because it would have contradicted NATO's open door policy, Woodward writes. But with this admission, it appeared that Putin had imposed a Russian veto on a sovereign country's decision to seek membership in NATO.

Putin has many weaknesses. According to U.S. intelligence analysts, one of his dominant personality traits was his thin skin and lack of confidence. During a 2021 phone call with Biden, Putin blurted out that he was upset that you called me a killer — a reference to an ABC television interview in which Biden agreed with the president's assessment Russian.

But the main factor behind Putin's cruelty, particularly in Ukraine, has been the COVID pandemic. Putin has been transformed by intense and prolonged isolation, Woodward writes, referring to U.S. intelligence reports. He surrounded himself with a small coterie of trusted people who shared the same nationalist views. He was physically and metaphorically separated from Russian society for almost three years.

He spent much of his isolation reading Russian history and studying old maps. Taking Ukraine had become something of a fever dream during his COVID isolation, Woodward writes. But the fever did not go away.

Biden thought he understood Putin's thinking, that his great ambition was to be a major player on the big stage, as Biden once told his entourage. But as Putin headed toward war, Biden began to have doubts. Was I wrong? Biden asked a group of Russian experts during a meeting at the White House about Putin's intentions. Did the Russian president want to be a respected world leader or a warmonger? What am I missing?

Trump, meanwhile, continues to insist that he understands Putin better than anyone. I know him very well. Very, very good, Trump said during a conservative radio interview. I knew he still wanted Ukraine. We talked about it at length.

Dan Coats, Trump's former director of national intelligence, told Woodward that how (Trump) treats Putin and what he says to Putin remains a mystery to me. . . He reaches out and never says anything bad about Putin, and says positive things about him. For me, it's scary.

Last July, Woodward asked Trump campaign aide Jason Miller about secret phone calls Trump allegedly had with Putin since leaving the White House in 2021. Miller denied the reports, but insisted that Trump has enough influence over Putin that he could easily shut down the campaign. War in Ukraine if he becomes president again.

He knows the pressure points for Putin and Zelensky to get this done, Miller told Woodward. After November 5, I believe President Trump will be able to resolve the problem, or most of it, by the time he is sworn in.

It's a bold promise, one that CIA Director William Burns doesn't necessarily agree with. Putin has a plan, Burns told Woodward. Just like he did when [Trump] was in power, playing Trump.