Politics
Exclusive: Trump's ground game in key states flagged as potentially false | Donald Trump
Donald Trump's campaign may be failing to reach the thousands of voters it hopes to attract in Arizona and Nevada, with about a quarter of door knocks made by America Pac flagged by its canvassing app as potentially fraudulent, according to leaked data and people familiar with the matter.
Potential knocks on the door when canvassers falsely claim they visited a home could present a serious setback for Trump as he and Kamala Harris remain even in the polls with less than 20 days until an election that appears increasingly more determined by the participation rate.
Earlier this year, the Trump campaign outsourced most of its field work to America Pac, the political action committee founded by Musk, betting that spending millions to recruit Trump supporters, in especially those who generally do not vote, would increase returns.
But leaked America Pac data obtained by the Guardian shows that about 24% of door knocks in Arizona and 25% of door knocks in Nevada this week were reported in unusual investigative logs by the Campaign Sidekick prospecting application.
Arizona data, for example, shows that of 35,692 doors knocked on by 442 canvassers working for Blitz Canvassing as part of Operation America Pac on Wednesday, 8,511 doors were flagged in unusual investigative logs.
The scale of reported doors in America Pacs operations underscores the risk of outsourcing a ground game program, in which paid canvassers are generally not as invested in their candidates' victory as volunteers or campaign staff.
America Pac has denied encountering this level of actual fraud in Arizona and Nevada and declined to comment on reporting for this story.
And a person familiar with the America Pac operation said: Sidekick was never expected to audit the operation of America Pac's gates. The reason the PAC is confident in its numbers is due to the auditing procedures that each canvassing firm puts in place and the auditing procedures of the PAC at large.
Screenshot from America Pacs systems for Arizona. A canvasser working for Blitz Canvassing appears to have marked the doors of a Mexican restaurant in Globe, Arizona. Photography: The Guardian
But several people familiar with the Campaign Sidekick app, including a recent Blitz Canvassing auditor and a senior executive at another vendor who signed a nondisclosure agreement with America Pac, agreed that the unusual activity logs were an effective tool for detecting cheaters.
Unusual activity logs, for example, showed a canvasser who was marked by GPS as sitting at a Guayos On the Trail restaurant, a half-mile from the doors he was supposed to knock on in Globe, Arizona. Another pollster was recorded marking voters as not being home two blocks from that apartment.
The Guardian also conducted its own test to see if manually removing cases of false positive doors wrongly marked as fraudulent would show that the unusual activity logs were too sensitive. Using a random sample of 26 solicitors in Arizona, the rate of suspected counterfeits was consistent with the overall rate.
Suspicious doors
The Trump campaign took a gamble this cycle by handing over most of its field work to political action committees, after the Federal Election Commission earlier this year for the first time authorized campaigns to coordinate their voter turnout efforts with outside groups.
The campaign initially envisioned several pacs helping to boost the Trump vote, but America Pac ultimately became the largest and most ambitious outside group by investing more than $29.8 million in its field operations for Trump and becoming the only pac with a material presence in the country. each state of the battlefield.
The largest of the other PACs involved in field work, such as Turning Point Action and America First Works, have a smaller footprint. Wisconsin's Turning Points team has also since been integrated into America Pacs operations, two people familiar with the matter said.
Thanks to its heavy investments, America Pac was able to record an impressive number of visits in just a few months thanks to its network of several suppliers and dozens of subcontractors of those suppliers in each of the battleground states.
But in the final stretch of the election, as the total number of door knocks increased, so did suspicion of counterfeiting, according to the leaked data. As of October 15, 20.1% of doors in Arizona were flagged in unusual activity logs. On October 16, it rose to 23.8% and on October 17, to 26.9%.
This increase was also reflected in Nevada. On October 15, 21.2% were flagged by the unusual survey result, a figure that rose on October 16 to 23.8%, then jumped dramatically on October 17 to 30.1%.
Under normal circumstances, a canvasser walks up to the door of a home where a Trump voter lives. The canvasser then accesses a list of questions on the smartphone app and records the survey responses.
An Unusual Activity Report on the Campaign Sidekick app is automatically generated when a survey is completed by a canvasser within a certain distance of the target voters' home location.
The app has built-in tolerances and generates an unusual survey report after taking into account several factors, such as how quickly the canvasser in question is expected to knock on doors and whether responses are recorded more than 100 feet away. the target door.
America Pac said its audit was conducted by its suppliers. In Arizona and Nevada, Blitz Canvassing is supposed to check the numbers at least every five days, and when a canvasser is caught cheating, they are immediately fired and their logbook is reassigned to another canvasser.
America Pac's field program is the most robust and effective outside prospecting effort ever, knocking on more doors with more people in more isolated terrain than ever before, America's suppliers said Pacs Blitz Canvassing, Echo Canyon, Synapse Group, Patriot Grassroots and Campaign. said Sidekick in a joint statement.
We are fully confident in the authenticity of our door counts thanks to the rigorous auditing infrastructure that each canvassing company deploys to complement Campaign Sidekicks' robust capabilities, and we are on track to exceed each of our door targets , indicates the press release.
But this audit system used in Arizona and Nevada only works if fraudulent canvassers are quickly detected, which has not always been the case. In one case, a canvasser was fired for blatant fraud only after working for five days and knocking on 796 doors, each one flagged as suspicious.
Part of the problem with paid canvassing, in general, is that cold-calling salespeople are discouraged from firing canvassers as they come knocking on doors because they are paid at the door. If the doors are not knocked, the seller must refund the customer or owe that many free doors.
For America Pac, sellers are even more discouraged from firing canvassers who might only defraud one in 10 doors, in fact someone who is just cutting corners, because the labor supply of solicitors is diminished at this late stage in the cycle and hiring a replacement is increasingly difficult. , said two people familiar with the matter.
Sources 2/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/19/trump-campaign-leaked-data-voters-elon-musk The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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