Donald Trump is now favored to win for the first time in months

Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win November's presidential election for the first time since Aug. 7, according to the latest model from polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

The latest FiveThirtyEight update released Friday gives the Republican a 51 percent chance of victory on November 5 compared to 49 percent for his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. FiveThirtyEight said it ran 1,000 simulations of its election model, producing 510 wins for Trump, 486 for Harris and four with no winners.

Recent polling suggests the presidential election remains hotly contested, with an analysis of a recent poll released Friday by FiveThirtyEight giving Harris a 2.1 percent lead in the popular vote. However, through the electoral college system, the vice president could win the popular vote but lose overall, as Hillary Clinton did against Trump in 2016.

An analysis of betting odds from major bookmakers, calculated Friday by data aggregator RealClearPolitics, found that Trump's average chance of victory was 58.5 percent, compared to 40.4 percent for Harris.

According to the latest analysis, Trump won an average of 271 Electoral College seats, one more than the 270 required for victory, compared to 267 for Harris. It was the first time the Republican nominee was favored over the vice president since Aug. 7, when the FiveThirtyEight model produced an average Electoral College result of 270 votes for Trump to 268 for his Democratic rival.

Former President Donald Trump on October 18, 2024 in Auburn Hills, Michigan. Trump is now the favorite to win the November presidential election, according to analysis by FiveThirtyEight. Former President Donald Trump on October 18, 2024 in Auburn Hills, Michigan. Trump is now the favorite to win the November presidential election, according to analysis by FiveThirtyEight. Win McNamee/GETTY

Harris' best showing came on September 18, when FiveThirtyEight predicted she would average 300 Electoral College seats, well ahead of Trump (238). This happened shortly after the only televised presidential debate between Harris and Trump on September 10, according to a CNN flash poll. concluded that the Democratic candidate had won.

Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race and offered his support on July 21. It followed weeks of speculation about the 81-year-old president's age and cognitive abilities after he struggled during a debate against Trump in late June.

Harris formally accepted the Democrats' 2024 presidential nomination on Aug. 22, the final day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Newsweek reached out to representatives of the presidential election campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for comment via email outside of normal business hours on Saturday.

An analysis of swing voters on social media released Friday by the monitoring firm Impact Social found that Harris and Trump had lost ground with this group since late September.

The data indicates that Harris' approval among undecided voters fell from -8 on September 27 to -17 on October 18, while Trump went from -10 to -23 with this group during the same period.

Dafydd Townley, an American political expert at the University of Portsmouth in the United Kingdom, told Newsweek: “Trump and Harris have become polarizing figures and both are now trying to appeal to voters unhappy with their party's representatives.” crucial to this election, which will likely be a victory by nice margins in these battleground states. »

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