Donald Trump's self-sabotage discourages undecided voters

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have both lost the support of swing voters since early October, with the Republican losing six popularity points over the past week due to “self-sabotage” , according to data from social media monitoring company Impact. Social.

The data shows that Harris went from a -8 rating with swing voters on September 27 to -17 on October 18, while Trump went from -10 to -23 during the same period. Speaking to Newsweek, a political scientist said that Republican and Democratic presidential candidates have become “polarizing figures” among American voters.

Trump and Harris are battling over undecided voters, amid what polls and election analysis suggest will be a hotly contested election. As of October 18, poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 51% chance of victory, ahead of Harris at 49%. Separately, an average compiled by data aggregator RealClearPolitics reveals that major bookmakers currently give the former president an average chance of victory of 58.5 percent, ahead of the vice president at 40.5 percent.

The Social Impact study on social media concluded that both Harris and Trump have seen their popularity drop among influential voters since early August, although the Democrat saw a steeper decline.

Harris went from a 10 approval rating among influential voters on August 8 to -11 on September 3. His rating improved to -3 after the September presidential debate against Trump, but continued to drop to -17 on October 18.

Trump, on the other hand, started with a rating of -8 which fell to a low point of -27 after the debate, after which it improved to -10 on September 27 before falling back to -23 on October 18 . Notably, according to Impact Social Data, both candidates are significantly less popular with influential voters than President Joe Biden was on October 18, 2020, when the then-Democratic presidential candidate had a score of -4 and that Trump recorded -16.

Social Impact's sentiment analysis was drawn from an algorithm that read a “statistically representative sample” of social media posts by those identified as swing voters. In 2016, Social Impact created a database of 40,000 key voters who matched a range of key characteristics.

In its report, Social Impact said Trump has faced increasing scrutiny from influential voters because of his age and mental acumen since Biden, 81, dropped out of the race in July.

Former President Donald Trump in Detroit, Michigan, October 18, 2024. Trump has lost popularity with influential voters over the past week due to his self-sabotage,” according to an analysis by Social Impact. Former President Donald Trump in Detroit, Michigan, October 18, 2024. Trump has lost popularity with influential voters over the past week due to his self-sabotage, according to an analysis by Social Impact. JIM WATSON/AFP/GETTY

The company said: “Since Biden dropped out of the race, the focus on mental health has inevitably shifted to the 78-year-old former president, with independents discussing Trump's occasional loss of thought during the campaign campaign will be more concerned about sharing images from an appearance in PA where their boss turned a political event into a music/dance festival and appeared to sway to songs for about a half. -time This was described by many independents as bizarre and disturbing.

Social Impact attributed this “self-sabotage” by Trump to a decline in his presence with influential voters over the past week.

However, the company also said Harris had alienated “black and non-black voters” by appearing to stereotype black voters “by proposing policies that would 'appeal' to their needs and lifestyle, such as liberalization drug laws.

Speaking to Newsweek, Dafydd Townley, who teaches American politics at the University of Portsmouth in the United Kingdom, said that unlike Biden in 2020, Trump and Harris had failed to create the type of approval multi-party which appealed to influential voters.

He said: “It’s no surprise that Biden had greater appeal across the political spectrum. He spent much of his career working with Republicans to pass bills.

“Trump and Harris have become polarizing figures and both are now trying to appeal to voters unhappy with their party's representatives. Undecided voters in swing states will be crucial to this election, which will likely be a victory by healthy margins in these fields. battle “The number of early voters is down from recent years’ totals, suggesting there are more undecided voters than in previous years. “

Newsweek reached out to representatives of the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for comment via email outside of normal business hours on Saturday.

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