FREDERICTON – New Brunswick's election campaign has given voters a deep divide in views on the province's future, particularly between the two leading candidates for premier.
Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs, a former unilingual oil executive running for a third term as prime minister, presented voters with a two-page platform containing 11 promises, some of which reflect the social-conservative trend taken by his party. And he has been conspicuous by his absence about a third of the days since he called the election on September 19. Higgs held no public events.
The Liberals, by contrast, made 100 promises, many of them on health care and housing, and bilingual leader Susan Holt, a former consultant and provincial official, took full advantage of the 33 days of campaigning, getting little out of it.
Higgs summed up Monday's election as one of the most important in the province's history.
“There are very stark differences between the competing parties,” he told reporters last week. “I truly believe the outcome will define the future of this province.”
The Conservatives promised to cut the harmonized sales tax by two percentage points, from 15 to 13 percent, and to “respect parents.” This latest promise refers to a 2023 decision by the Conservative government to require teachers to obtain parental consent before they can use the preferred first names and pronouns of transgender children under 16.
The Liberals have promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028 and eliminate the provincial sales tax on residential customers' electricity bills.
Jamie Gillies, a political scientist at St. Thomas University, called the Liberal campaign “traditional,” one that put Holt at the center; the Progressive Conservatives, he said, focused much less on the party leader.
He said Holt had a “very clear campaign strategy, which was to have a laser-like focus on health care.”
“I think they were probably successful in making this the number one issue during the campaign in voters' minds. Now, if the election turns on health care, we'll find out on Monday,” Gillies said.
Voters will also find out on Monday whether the Liberals or Conservatives get a majority; if not, the third-placed Green Party could play an outsized role. Leader David Coon has denied accusations that he has a list of demands ready for Holt in exchange for his party's support in case his party gets a minority of seats but garners more than the Conservatives.
Poll results favored the Liberals in the final stretch of the campaign. Mainstreet Research, in a poll released Saturday, reported that the Liberals had a six-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives among respondents. About 43 percent of poll participants said they would vote for the Liberals, while 35 percent said they would side with the Conservatives and 9 percent would support the Greens.
The poll, conducted by telephone between October 17 and 19, had a sample size of 724 people and a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
Survey aggregator 338Canada.com The Liberals were projected to win 25 seats – just enough for a majority – and the Conservatives 22, but the race is close. The Greens are far behind in the projection, with around two seats expected.
The Greens also focused their campaign on health care, promising to devote $380 million a year to the network and to decentralize decision-making to give hospitals more freedom. Coon, who has been described as a possible kingmaker by Gillies, also promises to implement a guaranteed income to rid the province of “deep poverty.”
“There is a chance the Greens can maintain the balance of power,” Gillies said, in case the Liberals fail to secure a majority.
The election results will also show whether Higgs was correct that his changes to gender identity policy in schools would encourage his base to vote. “So we're going to see whether voters reward or punish the prime minister for doubling down and then tripling down and quadrupling down on this issue,” Gillies said.
Tom Bateman, a political science professor at St. Thomas University, said the Progressive Conservative campaign was “pretty quiet and devoid of promises” except for the “expensive” 2 percent tax cut. harmonized sales. This promise will cost the province approximately $450 million per year when fully implemented.
“I would say Mr. Higgs has been relatively quiet, which makes sense considering he's not the most popular guy on the block right now,” Bateman said.
He described the Liberal promises as “all things shiny and beautiful” and “very expensive” and all of this cannot be achieved in one mandate.
The other factor that could play a role in deciding who gets the province's top job could be sympathy, he said.
Bateman said voters “want good policy, they want good government, and they want leaders that they would like to have a beer with, you know, on a Saturday afternoon, and sometimes they just can't get it all .
“But Mr. Higgs, you know, has a certain approach to leadership and dealing with the public, and I would say he seems a little frosty to the intermittently interested person, and that may cost him some votes.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published October 20, 2024.
