Donald Trump's chances of winning the popular vote

With just a month to go before the election, polls show Kamala Harris winning the popular vote by a wide margin.

In 36 years, only one Republican candidate has won the popular vote, when George Bush won by 2 points.

Polls currently show that Trump is unlikely to break this trend, but with the former president's rise in the polls, it is not impossible that he could still follow in Bush's footsteps.

No poll aggregator shows Trump in the lead. Nate Silver's model shows he has a 24 percent chance of winning the popular vote to Harris' 76 percent, with the pollster predicting the former president will get 48 percent of the vote to Harris' 51 percent. That's down from earlier this week, when Harris' Electoral College probability stood at 75 percent while Trump's was 25 percent.

Meanwhile, online betting platform Polymarket shows that Trump's chances of winning the popular vote increased from 27 percent on October 13 to 36 percent, while Harris' chances fell from 71 percent to 63 percent.

This comes amid a positive month for Trump in the polls. A new Fox News poll, conducted Oct. 11-14 of 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, showed Trump leading Harris by 2 points among registered and likely voters, 50 percent to 48 percent, which is within the margin of the survey. of error, a 4-point gap from when Harris led Trump by 2 points a month ago.

Former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a Univision town hall, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, in Doral, Florida. Trump is unlikely to win the popular vote. Former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a Univision town hall, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, in Doral, Florida. Trump is unlikely to win the popular vote. Alex Brandon/AP

In addition. The latest ActiVote poll, conducted October 3-8, shows Donald Trump holding a 1.2 point lead nationally with a 3% margin of error. This came after an ActiVote poll in September put Kamala Harris ahead by 5.4 points.

Trump also saw positive signs in swing states. RealClearPolitics polling showed last week that Michigan flipped in Trump's favor for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania also went Republican.

And according to the FiveThirtyEight poll, Trump's vote share increased in Arizona, from 1.1 points earlier this month to 1.6 points, as well as in Georgia, from 1.1 points to 1.7 points. Harris' vote share declined slightly in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Trump's vote share fell slightly, from 0.7 points to 0.5 points.

Separately, pollster Nate Silver's forecasts showed last week that 19 states had moved in favor of the former president.

Nevertheless, the polls remain close, particularly in key states where the candidates are separated by only 1 or 2 points. On Wednesday, Silver's forecast found that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris now have nearly equal odds of winning in November, with Harris at 50.1% and Trump at 49.7%. The change follows a 6-point decline in Harris's chances of winning since late September, as Trump gains momentum in 19 states, according to Silver's analysis.

“The forecast is very slim,” Silver noted. “With recent polls showing deadlock in the battlegrounds of the Midwest, it’s now essentially a 50/50 race.”

FiveThirtyEight's tracker shows that Harris is currently 2.4 points ahead of Trump nationally, while Silver's tracker shows she is 2.8 points ahead.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty

Correction 10/21/24, 2:27 a.m. ET: This article has been corrected to reflect that Polymarket lists Donald Trump's chances of winning the popular vote at 36%, not the Electoral College.

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