Badenoch will give conservatives time to think

This will be an immense task on a personal, political and intellectual level. It could be that either candidate ends up finding this beyond what most politicians would find. In voting this weekend, I was trying to determine which of the two, Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch, would be more likely to accomplish such a task, something you certainly wouldn't wish on your best friend.

I can no longer pretend that my own choice of candidate bodes well for them: I voted for Jeremy Hunt against Boris Johnson in 2019 and Rishi Sunak against Liz Truss in 2022. But having voted, as an MP or member of the party, in every Conservative leadership election since 1989, when Margaret Thatcher was challenged by Sir Anthony Meyer, I was on the winning side at that time and thought I absolutely had to vote. After hesitating for a while, I voted for Kemi Badenoch.

One of the reasons it hasn't been easy is that I've always loved and respected Robert Jenrick. It's a friendly, smart company. When he was a minister and I submitted a question to him, I found him useful, efficient and decisive. Although he fell sharply in my estimation when he left the Sunak government at a difficult time, he showed remarkable political skill to transform himself in a year from being a mid-ranking minister to the one about to ascend to the party leadership. He is not a man to be underestimated.

Jenrick is expected to have a big future in the Conservative Party, like all the other leadership contenders, a party with only 121 MPs has no surplus of talent. Yet it was Badenoch who laid out the strategy best suited to a political battle on multiple fronts and a pace of change that will render many current policies obsolete in five years. While Jenrick has set out a series of very specific commitments, including on immigration and leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, Badenoch has rightly resisted pressure to do so. She seems to know instinctively what I wish I had understood before I became leader of the opposition in 1997: that before voters will pay attention to the policies you announce, they need to understand your values.

Badenoch's insistence that principles rather than policies are the starting point for political renewal is correct. This is borne out by the experience of the most successful opposition leaders in recent history, from Churchill to Thatcher. Its values ​​of truth, personal responsibility, active citizenship, equality before the law and family in the broadest and modern sense of the family constitute solid bases on which to rethink policies over several years. And his adamant view that government processes need to be redesigned to achieve anything significant is also quite on point. Add to that his pugnacious personality and it is possible to discern the combination of values ​​and energy that could yet bring the Conservative Party off the electoral floor.

The alternative approach of deploying political commitments now presents two dangers. The first is that the initial instinct of much of the party, illustrated by Jenrick's focus on immigration policy, is to chase the Reform vote above anything else. That would be a mistake. No Tory leader will surpass Farage Nigel Farage, and an effort to do so will only lead them further in the wrong direction. Post-election research by pollsters More in Common showed that Conservative voters who switched to the Reform party were less likely than those who became Liberal Democrats or Labor to agree to return to the fold, while 17 per cent of those who remained conservative said they might consider voting. Lib Dem in the future. A Conservative leader who prioritizes Reform voters may find that they will not come back easily, while others will continue to drift away.

Badenoch could make this mistake again but she has given herself the latitude to avoid it. Everything suggests that the Conservatives will have to demonstrate sustained competence to overcome the disasters of recent years, then base their recovery on values ​​that appeal to voters of all tendencies, and not just the right. His character and his political strategy give him at least a chance of achieving this.

The second danger of premature policymaking is the most obvious: It will all be obsolete by the 2029 election. By then, Trump may have had four chaotic years in power, Putin will have won or lost its war, Europe will perhaps have won. will be resurgent or in terminal decline, Xi Jinping will pay attention to his legacy, AI will change the nature of work, and science will have made extraordinary progress. Conservative parties around the world will have to make a fundamental choice: whether they are voices of an angry response to disruptive change or leaders who find new solutions.

These solutions will be needed on migration as flows of people increasingly increase, and they will come through international agreements and not non-literal actions if they are to be effective. New ideas to encourage and reward young people in the job market will be needed, and not just to defend the position of older people. Leaders who rightly want a smaller state and lower taxes will need to rethink their vision to create a healthier, more empowered population. Strong defenses will require national leadership in new technologies, with government and the private sector learning to innovate together.

On all these issues and more, an opposition that hopes to be in government again in the next decade needs space for reflection. Revival will involve reimagining conservatism for a different era. It remains to be seen whether Badenoch, or anyone else, can achieve this. But because she knows the starting point is values, she deserves serious credit, and she won my vote.