Opinion polls and forecasts show Donald Trump's chances of winning the US election are increasing

Swing states are collapsing for Donald Trump. That's the growing consensus among forecasters in the United States. Five Thirty Eight puts Trump at a 51 percent chance of victory, Nate Silver gives Trump a 53 percent chance, and The Economist has Trump at 54 percent.

The projection from my firm, JL Partners, gives Trump a probability of more than 50% for the past month. We now give him a 66 percent chance of victory.

The main movement behind this is that Trump is performing better in all seven swing states. Polls throughout this election cycle have tended to see him crossing the finish line in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, but they're not enough to deliver an Electoral College victory. To achieve this, the former president will have to conquer a Midwestern state, among those of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And while the latter two represent better ground for Harris, the key swing state of Pennsylvania has seen a glut of positive polls for Trump in recent days.

National polls are less important, the race is decided state by state but can still give us an indication of the outcome. Recent, high-quality polls have shown Trump leading in the popular vote. If that happens, he will likely sweep all seven key states and could also make inroads in Minnesota and New Mexico. Such a result still seems unlikely: he did not achieve it even in 2016 against the much less popular Hillary Clinton.

In a polarized electorate, where more than 90 percent have made up their minds, it may seem strange that Trump's standing would improve this late in the day. Two things could fuel this.

First, surging Republican registrations in Pennsylvania and high early voting numbers in Nevada suggest he could benefit from better-than-expected turnout from his own supporters. Although both camps spend huge amounts of money on ads and Harris's ad budgets exceed those of the Trump campaigns, he may be more successful, particularly in focusing on the daily pains of inflation compared to life under Trump.

Harris succeeded where Biden could not make this campaign a referendum on the former president, but it also means Trump can point to what his core voters see as a better economic situation in his first term.

His visits and speaking engagements in key states have also been eye-catching and visual, distracting from the opposing campaign and generating enthusiasm among his own supporters. Could you tell me what Harris was doing on Sunday while Trump was serving McDonald's fries in Pennsylvania? I didn't think so.

Second, some undecided people might fall for Donald Trump. It's a small number of two million spread across the seven swing states, but, with margins so tight, where they land will make a difference.

I spent months talking to these undecided voters across the country. Time and time again, they expressed concern about Trump's temperament. He's a crybaby, a Nevada resident said as we climbed a sand dune together. He's just plain mean, said one undecided psychic from North Carolina. He's not a good man, noted a pastor at a Seventh-day Adventist church in Georgia. Trump's poor performance in the debate against Kamala Harris, where she managed to annoy her, only reinforced this view.

But in recent days, undecided voters are talking more about his strength. He may be an asshole, but he gets things done, one indecisive widow from Wisconsin told me. The importance of foreign affairs and the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East may have contributed to this outcome: voters still believe he is better suited than Harris to manage a global conflict. As the widow said: abortion rights don't matter if we all explode. Trump's recent toning down of his harshest rhetoric has given voters space to consider the benefits of his boldness.

Harris, meanwhile, has struggled to mobilize her own base. Black men, crucial in Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, do not show signs of as large a turnout as for Joe Biden or Barack Obama. One black voter, Gabriel, whom I met in rural Georgia, told me frankly: If you think white men have a problem with black women, wait until you hear what black men think.

Harris is also facing attrition among Hispanic voters, and some young, progressive voters are seeking to punish her at the polls for her support of Israel. Independent voters don't hate the vice president. I've heard her described as being kind, like your aunt, and a good person. But they doubt his strength and his ability to lead.

There are caveats to everything I have said. A 35 percent chance of Harris winning still means she wins in one out of three of our simulations. The models are based on polls that have been proven wrong in the past. A state could also reverse the trend due to local factors. Trump, for example, could be dragged down by the scandal-hit Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina.

But with two weeks to go, it's better to be in Donald Trump's shoes than Kamala Harris.

While writing this article, Chris, an undecided voter in Georgia, called me. In 2020, he supported Biden out of fear of Trump. Even though he hasn't made up his mind yet, he told me: I'm not afraid of Trump like I used to be. I think we have to face reality as it is. Trump will be re-elected, but he will not destroy the country.

The fear fades. If Kamala Harris fails to awaken voters' fear of Donald Trump, then he is poised to win the most swing states within two weeks.

James Johnson is the co-founder of JL Partners

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