Will Prabowo make Indonesian foreign policy more assertive?

Prabowo-Gibran, whose candidacy for president and vice president sparked controversy, started work on October 20, 2024.

To protect their government, we have published a special edition of #PantauPrabowo which contains important questions resulting from our mapping with the TCID author network. This edition also assesses Joko Widodo's 10 years of government, as well as the support given to Prabowo-Gibran in carrying out his duties.

The beginning of President Prabowo Subianto's regime opened possibilities for changes in the direction of state policy, especially in foreign policy. Under the government of Joko Jokowi Widodo, Indonesia's foreign policy tend to be more passivefocuses on national economic development with international diplomatic delegation most of which was handed over to former Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi. However, under Prabowo's leadership, a more active and assertive approach to Indonesian foreign policy may emerge.

Minister of Defense since 2019, Prabowo has shown great interest in international affairs. He actively participates in global forums such as Shangri-La Dialogue and establish bilateral relationships with world leaders, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Instead of repeating Jokowi's pragmatic style, Prabowo will most likely lead Indonesia to play a greater role in international affairs, especially in a number of strategic areas, such as Indonesia's attitude to regard to the conflict in the South China Sea (SCS), its position among the the great powers and, likely to take priority, Indonesia's role within ASEAN.

Jokowi-style pragmatism

Jokowi's foreign policy remains cautious, in line with course free-activean approach introduced by Bung Hatta in 1948 then became a characteristic of Indonesia since the Suharto era. This strategy aims to balance diplomatic relations with China, Asia's largest economy, and ASEAN countries without sacrificing regional peace and stability. The principle of free action, based on non-intervention and political independence, allows Indonesia to remain neutral, at least not to openly take sides.

However, this principle also leads Jokowi's foreign policy to be guided by economic pragmatism. Down-to-earth diplomacy Jokowi's implementation focuses more on strengthening trade relations than playing an assertive, multilateral role on the international stage.

In the context of the SCS conflict, for example, Jokowi appears to be preventing Indonesia from acting aggressively in the territorial dispute. Even against tensions between China and Taiwan Indonesia has not displayed a firm position either.

The LCS region is not only rich in natural resources like oil and gas, but also a globally significant maritime trade route.

In fact, Indonesia, although not a central actor in the SCS territorial dispute, has great importance in this region, particularly around the Natuna Sea which is part of the Indonesian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The interests mentioned mainly include military and economic interests.

In the context of global competition between the two great powers, the United States and China, Jokowi's policies do not seem aggressive either. Until now, Indonesia has tended to focus on creating partnerships on which large countries, such as the United States and China, can count. This is understandable, given that both countries are strategic partners of Indonesia.

Along with China's economic expansion and the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment initiative in national infrastructure development, Indonesia now finds itself in a complex position , forcing its leaders to seek a balance between maintaining national sovereignty and expanding economic relations.

Will Prabowo be more aggressive?

Prabowo will likely take a more assertive approach, including increasing his defensive capacity. The big vision is prioritize national security and defensewhich reflects his military experience.

In particular, Prabowo stressed the importance of preparing Indonesia to play a more assertive role in the South China Sea disputes and strengthen defense capacitysuch as the addition of patrol platforms and satellites, in order to protect the country's strategic interests in the relevant areas.

When he was defense minister, Prabowo simply oversaw the increase of military infrastructure in the region in response to growing pressure from China. Thus, Prabowo could modify his traditional non-intervention approach to adopt a more assertive stance in defending national interests, while maximizing economic benefits.

Within ASEAN, Prabowo will likely attempt to strengthen Indonesia's leadership in the region by fostering stronger regional economic integration. Prabowo's foreign policy may aim to make Indonesia a central player in the geopolitical and economic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.

If we analyze it from the point of view international political economy (IPE)Amid growing competition between the United States and China, Prabowo will likely attempt to position Indonesia as a key player on global trade routes and ensure that projects financed by China through the BRI and the nickel downstream can continue. But at the same time, Prabowo will try to avoid excessive dependence on Beijing.

Prabowo appears ready to introduce a new dynamic in maintaining the delicate balance between the United States and China. Prabowo himself was associated with the Suharto regime and has a controversial past linked to accusations of human rights violations that resulted in him being banned from entering the United States. for 20 years. The ban was only lifted in 2019 after Jokowi appointed him defense minister.

The history of his complex relationship with the United States will likely influence Prabowo's attitude toward Washington. This will likely encourage him to reorient his foreign policy to be more pro-Beijing.

But again, the situation is more complex due to the strategic partnership between Indonesia and the two countries.

Will Prabowo join the BRICS bloc?

Indonesia's traditional policy of non-alignment will likely remain the guiding principle under Prabowo's leadership, but with closer cooperation with non-Western powers such as China, Russia and Turkey.

Prabowo may view alignment with these rising powers as a more cost-effective path to expanding Indonesia's influence as a regional and global power.

Recently it was widely reported that Prabowo open opportunities exploring membership in BRICS (a developing economic bloc made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

See Malaysia which officially became a BRICS partner country and is taking steps Thailand To become a member of BRICS, it is not impossible that Prabowo plans to join the alternative axis alliance.

BRICS plays an increasingly important role as a platform for closer cooperation among emerging economies, with the aim of challenging the Western-dominated global economic order. If Indonesia decides to deepen its relations with this bloc, it will be able to strengthen its strategic autonomy and distance itself from the power structure heavily dominated by the United States and its Western allies.

Indonesia, under Prabowo's leadership, will likely play a greater role in foreign policy and relations, both in the region and among major powers. However, Prabowo is seen to aim to maximize economic and geopolitical profits, even while taking advantage of tensions between the United States and China.

Indonesia is in a unique position: it can benefit from Chinese investments through the BRI as well as US initiatives to build new global supply chains, particularly in the technology and manufacturing sectors, as well as encourage active participation of ASEAN in the resolution of conflicts in the world. region.