Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris on US economy in latest FT poll

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Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris as the candidate Americans trust on the economy, according to a new Financial Times poll that highlights the Democratic Party's difficulty in convincing voters they are better off today than 'four years ago.

The latest monthly poll by the FT and the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business found that 44 percent of registered voters said they had more confidence in Trump to manage the economy, compared with 43 percent who Harris.

The results, released less than two weeks before the election, mark the first time Trump has led Harris on the issue in the FT-Michigan Ross poll.

The poll also finds that Trump has a larger lead among voters on the question of which candidate would make them better off financially. Forty-five percent chose the former Republican president, a five-point improvement from the previous month, compared to 37 percent for Harris, the Democratic vice president.

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The results suggest that Harris' economic rhetoric has lost steam in the final stretch of an increasingly tight race with Trump. The FT's poll tracking system now shows candidates in virtual deadlock in swing states that will decide the election.

Erik Gordon, a professor at the Ross School of Business, said Harris' economic policy proposals have been met with as much disappointment as enthusiasm.

If she wants to win the election, she will have to win them on other issues, he said.

Voters' refusal to give Harris and her boss President Joe Biden credit for strong economic growth and low unemployment has been a persistent feature of the FT-Michigan Ross poll since the first survey in November 2023.

Harris briefly overtook Trump on the economy after replacing Biden on the Democratic ticket this summer, but that advantage has been erased.

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With less than two weeks until Election Day on November 5, the poll highlights the big obstacle Harris faces. The survey consistently finds that voters rank economic issues, such as jobs and the cost of living, as the most important issues in deciding their vote for president.

Even though Harris polled better on economic issues than Biden did when he was the Democratic nominee, the party struggled to convince voters that he was a competent manager of the economy. When asked whether they were better off financially under Trump's presidency or under Biden's presidency, 51% said they were much or somewhat better off under the Republican presidency. Just 28 percent said they were better off under Biden.

Voters still lament the high cost of living left behind by the inflation surge in 2022, which has left prices high and continues to weigh heavily on consumer confidence.

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More than three-quarters of voters cited rising prices as one of their main sources of financial stress, a figure that has remained broadly consistent in the 12 months since the survey was launched.

Trump insisted he would lower the cost of living by cutting energy prices and taxes such as those on tips and overtime for hourly workers and benefits for seniors.

Harris, who often describes his childhood experience in a middle-class or middle-income household, has pitched an opportunity economy focused on less affluent families that would include a federal crackdown on price gouging and subsidies for the first home buyers and small businesses.

The poll suggests that some of Harris' message on this issue is resonating, with 49 percent of voters saying she better represented the interests of the middle class, while 37 percent said they were better represented by Trump. Voters also felt the vice president better represented the interests of small businesses, blue-collar workers and union workers.

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Trump, who has pledged to further cut the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 15 percent, is seen as a better representative of the interests of big businesses and wealthy individuals.

But the Republican also put protectionism at the heart of his economic pitch, promising to impose high tariffs on everything from cars to foreign-made consumer products.

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The poll showed that while a majority of voters agreed with a significant or moderate increase in tariffs on goods from China, the largest share of voters disagreed with an increase in tariffs on imports from other countries.

The FT-Michigan Ross Poll was conducted online by Democratic strategists Global Strategy Group and Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research October 17-21. It reflects the opinions of 1,007 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Video: America Divided: Women Voting for Trump | FT films

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