This is how Americans view Harris and Trump on the economy

Top line

Americans lean slightly toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as they view him as the strongest option to lead the economy, according to a poll released Thursday. as the US economy finds itself at a potential inflection point heading into the election.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event Wednesday.

AFP via Getty Images Key Facts

A joint survey by the Financial Times and the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan found that 44% of voters favor Trump to lead the economy, compared to 43% for Harris, with a margin of error of 3 .3 percentage points in the polls, but reversing a margin of error of 44% to 42%. leads in favor of Harris in the September edition of the surveys.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey also released Thursday finds that Trump holds a 13 percentage point advantage among voters who view inflation and the economy as a whole as their top issues this cycle.

And other major polls have shown Trump as the preferred candidate to lead the economy overall: a September AP-NORC poll found a 43% to 41% margin for Trump on the issue, and a New York poll York Times and Siena College published last month. found that 54% of respondents trusted Trump to lead the economy, compared to 41% for Harris.

Although Harris has narrowed Trump's advantage on the economy compared to President Joe Biden, polls suggest Americans strongly favor Trump in terms of the impact on their personal finances.

This week's Financial Times survey found that 45% of Americans think Trump will leave them better off financially, compared to 37% for Harris, while the similar CNBC survey found a strong trend in Trump's favor in this regard, with 42% of respondents thinking Trump would leave. they are better off financially, compared to 29% for Harris.

Contra

An Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Tuesday found a nearly even split among the candidates on several hot-button economic issues: Voters favored Harris 41% to 36% on housing costs , from 42% to 40% on employment. and unemployment and 46 to 34 percent on middle-class taxes, while respondents went for Trump by a 42 to 40 percent margin on jobs and unemployment and a 40 to 38 percent split on customs duties.

Tangent

As the Federal Reserve passed the first interest rate cuts since 2020 and the stock market hit new highs, views of the economy have improved, with a CBS News poll released last month finding that 39 % of Americans think the country's economic situation is good, compared to 35%. % last month. The CBS survey found that Harris made gains among likely voters who view the economy as a top issue, as Trump's lead over Harris among that population narrowed from 56% to 43% in August at 53% to 47%.

Key context

Trump's economic plan focused largely on deregulation of the energy and financial sectors, touting much better inflation during his presidency than Biden's and instituting significant tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. economy has performed very well under Trump and Biden by most measures, with historically low unemployment, strong stock market performance, and steady growth in economic output under both administrations, with the exception of one global setback in 2020-21 in the depths of COVID-19. pandemic (see here for detailed data on how the economy has performed under Biden and Trump). The president often has less direct impact on the U.S. economy than the public suggests, given the difficulty of implementing policies, the global nature of the economy, and the fragile nature of the stock market, which ultimately relies on the profit growth of multinational corporations.

How might stocks react to a Trump or Harris victory?

Although the presidential impact on stock prices is often negligible over the long term, strategists suggest it is likely that stocks in sectors such as banking and oil production would benefit from a boost from Trump, while Companies that rely heavily on manufacturing in Taiwan (like semiconductor chipmaker Nvidia), or on sales in China (like Apple), could be affected by Trump's policies in the region.

Further ReadingForbesTrump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Extends Lead in Latest SurveyBy Sara Dorn ForbesHow the Economy Really Performed Under Biden and TrumpFrom Jobs to InflationBy Derek Saul

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