Did India and China manage to cross a border?

After a five-year hiatus, Indian and Chinese leaders held substantial bilateral discussions this week in Kazan, Russia, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping have had little direct contact since the 2020 clashes in the Himalayan border region, but agreed in Kazan that special representatives on the India-India border issue China would soon meet to stabilize links.

Ahead of the BRICS summit, India and China have agreed to an agreement under which patrolling rights in the Depsang and Demchok plains must be restored and coordinated. However, the situation in other friction points in Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso would remain the same.

In June 2020, a major clash between soldiers of the two countries took place in the Galwan Valley, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers.

As the two sides discuss waiting areasIndian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar note the disengagement process with China is complete. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian also declaredChina and India reached resolutions on issues concerning the border area following close communication through diplomatic and military channels. The Chinese Defense Ministry said a certain consensus with India last month on the disengagement of troops from friction points along the so-called Line of Actual Control, or LAC, in eastern Ladakh.

India and China see this line differently. For New Delhi, the LAC is 3,488 kilometers long, while for Beijing it is only 2,000 kilometers. In recent times, frequent clashes and military clashes have also taken place between the soldiers guarding their respective borders. In June 2020, a major clash between the militaries of the two countries took place in the Galwan Valley, resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers.

In 2023, during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, Modi and Xi had a brief interaction during which: according to Vinay Kwatra, then Indian Foreign MinisterBoth leaders agreed to direct their officials to intensify efforts toward rapid disengagement and de-escalation at the border. After the Modi government was re-elected this year, unlike in 2019, it was Chinese Premier Li Qiang rather than Xi who took power. sent a congratulatory message. However, in June, the conference marking the 70th anniversary of the five principles of peaceful coexistenceXi made a conciliatory speech on cooperation. Modi decided against the trip to Kazakhstan in July to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which China is also a member, but which met with Xi this week.

This impasse had no obvious consequences on trade between the two countries. In 2022, India's trade with China grew by 8.4%, and this year China overtook the United States to become India. leading business partner. Two-way commerce strongly favors Beijinghowever, and concerns New Delhi. Jaishankar recently noted the perception injusticeemphasizing that Indian products do not have the same access to the Chinese market as Chinese products enjoy in India. Better China-India relations could translate into even stronger trade and help New Delhi address the persistent trade imbalance.

Three key factors are likely to have motivated this new agreement.

As part of efforts to maintain its international ambitions, Beijing is seeking to present itself as a more responsible and cooperative international actor, placing less emphasis on so-called wolf warrior diplomacy.

First, in the case of New Delhi, economics guided a political reset with Beijing. After the Galwan clash, India imposed significant restrictions on Chinese investments and visas which were not permitted. affected the Indian business community.

Second, the West's position on the diplomatic turmoil in India-Canada relations alongside the US charges against Indian spy on an alleged plot to kill American Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun perhaps gave some impetus to New Delhi's decision to improve its ties with Beijing.

Third, China's behavior has changed. As part of efforts to maintain its international ambitions, Beijing seeks to present itself as a more responsible and cooperative international player with less emphasis on so-called wolf warrior diplomacy. The India-China border deal and the meeting between Modi and Xi are positive signs, even if there are positive signs. trust issues.

The China-India relationship demonstrates that mutual interests, preferences and interdependence guide state behavior. Indeed, cooperation is sometimes tactical rather than structural change in the perception and relationship of a country with others.

In the middle of the chase cooperation-competition cycle between New Delhi and Beijing, it would be hasty to draw concrete conclusions on the trajectory of the bilateral relationship.