Can Trump really undertake the 'largest deportation' in US history?

WASHINGTON

Former President Trump promised that if re-elected, he would deport millions of immigrants living in the United States illegally.

Trump and his surrogates have provided few details about how he would carry out the largest deportation operation in American history, but have made that goal a top priority. What we know: The strategy would rely on military troops, friendly state and local law enforcement, as well as war powers.

No one is excluded, Tom Homan, Trump's former Immigration and Customs Enforcement official, said in July. If you're in the country illegally, you better look over your shoulder.

Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance said the administration would start by deporting immigrants who have committed crimes.

At a campaign rally earlier this month in Aurora, Colorado, Trump said he would invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target and dismantle all migrant criminal networks operating on U.S. soil.

The former president added that he would send elite squads of federal law enforcement agents to track down, arrest and deport all migrant gang members. Those who attempt to return to the United States would be sentenced to 10 years in prison without the possibility of parole, he said, adding that any migrant who kills a U.S. citizen or law enforcement officer would face the death penalty.

How many people would Trump attack?

It's not clear.

In May, Trump told Time magazine he would target 15 to 20 million people he said are living in the United States illegally. The nonpartisan Pew Research Center estimates the actual number at around 11 million in 2022. More than 2 million people have entered the country illegally since then.

Let's start with 1 million, Vance told ABC News in August.

During his entire presidency, from January 2017 to January 2021, Trump deported about 1.5 million immigrants, according to a Migration Policy Institute analysis of federal figures far lower than the 2 to 3 million he had speculated he would deport. in a 2016 interview as president-elect. . The Biden administration is on track to match Trump's deportation numbers.

What powers would Trump invoke to justify the expulsions?

The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 authorizes the president to arrest, imprison, or deport immigrants from a country considered an enemy of the United States during times of war. Congress passed the law as part of the Alien and Sedition Acts, four laws that increased restrictions on foreign-born Americans and limited criticism of the government as the country teetered on the brink of a war with France.

The law has been used three times in American history: during the War of 1812 and World War I and after the attack on Pearl Harbor during World War II.

During World War I, federal authorities placed 6,300 enemy aliens, most of whom were from Germany, in internment camps.

By the end of World War II, more than 31,000 people from Japan, Germany and Italy, as well as some Jewish refugees from Nazi Germany, had been interned in military camps and installations, in addition of the more than 100,000 Japanese Americans forcibly transferred to the country. same camps and detained on different legal grounds, said Gabriel Jack Chin, a professor at UC Davis who studies criminal and immigration law.

Chin said he was not convinced Trump would make the Alien Enemies Act the cornerstone of his immigration policy because the United States is not at declared war with any other nation.

This should be based on the argument that random immigration, that is, immigration based on the individual decisions of individual people, is the equivalent of an invasion of a nation-state, a- he declared. And it should be based on the idea that foreigners as a group constitute a nation.

Trump also said he would deploy National Guard troops under sympathetic governors.

If I thought things were getting out of hand, I would have no problem using the military, he told Time.

Federal law limits the participation of military troops in the enforcement of civilian laws.

In 2018, Trump sent 5,800 active-duty troops to the southwest border amid the arrival of a caravan of thousands of migrants from Central America. Initially, the troops performed supporting work, such as laying barbed wire to deter crossing, but later the White House expanded their authority to allow them to use force and provide crowd control to protect border agents.

Last year, President Biden sent 1,500 Army and Marine Corps troops to fill critical capacity gaps at the border as the administration lifted the title border expulsion policy 42 that Trump had invoked to deny asylum seekers and other potential immigrants amid the COVID-19 pandemic. the pandemic was raging.

Trump has promised to go further in a second term by recalling thousands of foreign troops stationed at the U.S.-Mexico border. He also considered using troops to help with deportations and deal with civil unrest.

Is this legal?

Using the Alien Enemies Act, Trump could carry out rapid deportations without the legal procedures typically required. It could also circumvent federal law to use military troops as part of a broader law enforcement framework to carry out arrests and deportations.

But speeding up the eviction process could have catastrophic consequences, Chin said. Dozens of American citizens are already being deported by mistake.

If the purpose of this operation was a raid, American citizens would be arrested, he said.

Katherine Yon Ebright, an attorney at the Brennan Center for Justice, argued in an analysis of the law that courts would likely avoid ruling on the presence or absence of an invasion, or whether the perpetrator of the alleged invasion is a foreign nation or government.

The courts' reluctance to rule on these issues increases the risk that Trump will invoke the Alien Enemies Act despite its manifest inapplicability, she wrote. But she added that courts can overturn an invocation of the Foreign Enemies Act under modern due process and equal protection law, justiciable grounds to check improper presidential action.

Tom Jawetz, deputy general counsel at the Department of Homeland Security from 2021 to 2022, said courts tend to show deference to the president for executive decisions. But he added that this measure could be difficult to maintain.

There could be opportunities for legal attacks, he said. It would seem that they would stretch it beyond its capacity, beyond what the text [of the law] would allow.

Is this feasible?

Expelling millions of people would be costly and logistically complex.

Former President Obama, who in 2013 oversaw the most deportations in a year when his administration expelled 438,000 immigrants, relied on local police to turn people over to federal immigration agents. Trump said he would also rely on state and local law enforcement. But many states and local governments, including California, have since limited their cooperation with immigration officials.

Immigration courts are already overwhelmed and more deportation cases would add to the backlog of 3.7 million cases. Long delays in immigration court proceedings mean immigrants often wait years for their cases to be resolved.

Among the rights granted to immigrants is a 2001 Supreme Court ruling that bars them from being detained indefinitely if their country refuses to accept them. Countries like Venezuela and China have previously refused to cooperate with U.S. authorities on deportations.

How much would it cost?

It would cost at least $315 billion to illegally deport the country's approximately 13 million people, according to an analysis by the American Immigration Council, a group that advocates for welcoming policies for migrants. The deportation effort would require the construction of hundreds of new detention centers, as well as the hiring of hundreds of thousands of new immigration agents, judges and other staff.

Last year, Immigration and Customs Enforcement's budget was about $9 billion. Significantly increasing its funding would require support from Congress, an uphill battle given current political divisions.

Jawetz said Trump could redirect funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Defense, as he did for border wall construction, and could also reassign personnel from other agencies to carry out immigration control tasks.

A CBS News analysis found that it cost an average of $19,599 to deport a person over the past five fiscal years, after accounting for arrest, detention, immigration court proceedings and transportation outside the United States. The average cost of repatriation is only increasing as more migrants arrive from faraway countries like Cameroon and China.

How do people prepare?

Mass evictions could tear apart deep-rooted families including citizens and non-citizens, worsen labor shortages and lead to economic upheaval. Mere discussion of mass deportations would also risk sowing fear in immigrant communities, as happened during Trump's first term.

Jawetz said migrant advocates are beginning to consider possible legal action. During Trump's presidency, informal Signal and WhatsApp networks emerged across the country, in which advocates and community members communicated real-time responses to the policy changes they were seeing on the ground.

We hope and expect to see the same thing this time if Trump wins, the former Homeland Security adviser said. If you think about it, people's anxiety levels [would be] living every day for several years is quite extraordinary.

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