This week's rapprochement between Chinese and Indian leaders raises questions about New Delhi's commitment to the Quad, the loose four-nation alliance widely seen as a U.S.-led attempt to counter the influence China in the Indo-Pacific.
India's participation in the group, which also includes Japan and Australia and is officially known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, has been at least partly motivated by a thorny border dispute that has given rise to repeated clashes between Chinese and Indian troops along their Himalayan border.
Indian Presidents Narendra Modi and Chinese Presidents Xi Jinping agreed on Wednesday, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, to narrow their differences and jointly develop a border patrol plan. The agreement is expected to lead to closer political and economic ties.
“The thaw in relations between India and China is a boon for both countries. It is particularly important for China as India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of the Quad,” Zhiqun said Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University. , told VOA. “In this sense, the effectiveness of the Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India.”
India and China share some common interests as two largest developing countries. China was India's largest trading partner last year, although there are signs the United States could take its place this year.
“This suggests that the United States may want to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy without relying too much on India's support,” Zhu said.
The Quad has played an important role in US efforts to establish a network of alliances and partnerships to counter China's growing economic and military power, marked by its aggressive behavior in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea .
“By remaining relatively informal, the Quad can quietly accomplish many of the functions NATO performs, including contingency military planning,” security expert James Jay Carafano wrote on the group's website. geopolitical thinker based in Liechtenstein. Services SA.
China's state newspaper Global Times described improving Sino-Indian relations as a response to efforts by the United States and Western Europe to reduce their economic dependence on China, a process sometimes described as “decoupling”.
“In the context of the US 'decoupling' strategy, enhanced cooperation between China and India assumes even greater importance,” the newspaper said in an editorial published Thursday. “Pressures from the US 'decoupling' strategy and technological restrictions have exacerbated regional tensions and increased geopolitical risks for both countries.”
The editorial also states that the potential geopolitical shift has already sparked market optimism. “This is based on the recognition of their complementary strengths and the vast opportunities for collaboration across various sectors, including manufacturing, infrastructure and sustainable development.”
Still, it is unclear whether the border deal will be upheld despite decades-old differences between the world's two most populous countries.
They fought a war in 1962 and were engaged in a border clash in 2020 in which 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers died. There is concern in India whether China will actually withdraw its troops from the disputed border areas and implement the agreement on the ground.
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said Thursday that “agreements, once reached, must be scrupulously respected” and that “disputes and disputes must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.”
